Gold (XAUUSD) is back in positive territory, but everything is changing too quickly

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have returned to local growth near 4,672 USD, with the Middle East factor remaining decisive. Discover more in our analysis for 3 April 2026

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices are recovering after yesterday’s decline, while the market is still watching the Middle East
• Investors are interested in the US dollar as a safe-haven asset
• XAUUSD forecast for 3 April 2026: 4,800

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) quotes stabilised on Friday after declining the previous day and are holding near 4,672 USD per ounce. The precious metal came under pressure amid simultaneous growth in the dollar and oil prices following President Trump’s statements about a possible intensification of military action against Iran.

Trump noted that the US had almost achieved its military objectives, but did not specify a timeframe for the end of the conflict. The confrontation has now continued for about a month. At the same time, he allowed for new intensive strikes over the next two to three weeks. Such rhetoric fuelled inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of higher interest rates.

Tehran denied claims of a possible ceasefire, confirming that the Strait of Hormuz remains under military control.

Against this backdrop, the dollar strengthened its position as a safe-haven asset, putting pressure on dollar-denominated gold. Since the conflict began on 28 February, the metal has lost about 13% of its value.

The forecast for gold (XAUUSD) is mixed.

Technical outlook

The gold (XAUUSD) H4 chart shows that after a prolonged downtrend that began in the first half of March, the market formed a local bottom in the 4,200–4,300 area and moved into a recovery phase. Prices exited oversold territory and began forming a sequence of higher lows, indicating a shift in short-term momentum from bearish to neutral-to-bullish.

The movement then shifted into a moderate ascending channel, gradually rising towards the 4,700–4,800 zone, where local resistance formed. Bollinger Bands expanded on the impulse and then began to narrow, signalling slower volatility. MACD moved into positive territory, confirming a recovery in momentum. However, its momentum has slowed, suggesting a weakening trend.

At the moment, prices are consolidating in a range above 4,600, holding above the middle Bollinger Band. The Stochastic Oscillator has exited overbought territory and turned upwards, which may indicate an attempt to continue growth. The nearest support level is forming in the 4,550–4,600 area, while resistance is located in the 4,750–4,800 zone. A breakout from this range will determine the next direction of movement.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: neutral-to-bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,750 and 4,800
• Key support levels: 4,600 and 4,550

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Limit)

A rebound from the 4,750–4,800 resistance zone would confirm persistent selling pressure and limited recovery momentum amid a strong dollar.

• Take Profit: 4,600
• Stop Loss: 4,820

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 4,800 would indicate a breakout above a local resistance level and a continuation of the ascending channel.

• Take Profit: 4,900
• Stop Loss: 4,700

Risk factors

The risks to the downside scenario are linked to stronger demand for safe-haven assets amid an escalation of the conflict, as Trump stated. This may support gold. At the same time, a stronger dollar and rising inflation expectations, which affect Federal Reserve policy, are limiting the upside potential and keeping pressure on the metal.

Summary

Gold prices are attempting to recover after yesterday’s stress. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 3 April 2026, suggests an attempt to move towards 4,800.

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