XAUUSD is losing ground amid uncertainty in the Middle East

XAUUSD prices are moving into a corrective decline amid technical signals and increasing geopolitical tensions. Quotes currently stand at 4,589 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 2 April 2026

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Donald Trump did not specify a timeframe for the end of the conflict in the Middle East
• A downward momentum is forming, with the risk of further decline
• US rhetoric suggests the possibility of new tough actions against Iran
• XAUUSD forecast for 2 April 2026: 4,275

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are correcting downwards after rising for four consecutive trading sessions. Sellers formed a rebound from the 4,805 USD level and are now attempting to consolidate below the 4,605 USD mark. A breakout below this level will increase pressure on the asset.

On the H4 chart, gold has consolidated below the lower boundary of the Wedge reversal pattern, signalling downward momentum and increasing the likelihood of a further decline in the short term.

Pressure on gold has increased amid geopolitical uncertainty. US President Donald Trump did not specify the exact timing for the end of the conflict in the Middle East. In his speech, he stated that Washington is close to achieving its strategic goals in Iran, while simultaneously allowing for the possibility of new tough actions. Stronger rhetoric is dampening demand for safe-haven assets.

The situation in the energy market also remains a risk factor. Asian countries are already facing disruptions in oil and petroleum product supplies from the Middle East region. The reduction in inventories means that similar pressure will begin to spread to European countries.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes have consolidated below the EMA-65, indicating growing selling pressure. A breakout below the lower boundary of the Wedge pattern further confirms weakness, signalling the completion of the corrective growth. The XAUUSD forecast for today suggests a renewed decline with a target at 4,275 USD.

The technical picture remains bearish. The Stochastic Oscillator is rebounding from the resistance zone, previously reached overbought territory, and formed a bearish crossover. This signal increases the risks of a continued downward movement. A breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending corrective channel and consolidation below the 4,475 USD level will confirm the decline.

An alternative scenario suggests a resumption of growth. A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidation above the 4,855 USD level will open the way for upward momentum.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,855 and 4,995
• Key support levels: 4,605 and 4,475

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Limit)

A confident rebound from the lower boundary of the Wedge pattern at the 4,715 USD level would create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 4,275
• Stop Loss: 4,740

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 4,855 level would indicate a breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel and signal an upward wave.

• Take Profit: 4,995
• Stop Loss: 4,785

Risk factors

The risks to the downside scenario include a possible increase in demand for safe-haven assets in the event of a further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which may support gold prices. An additional risk factor will be a price consolidation above the 4,855 USD level, which would indicate the cancellation of the bearish structure and renewed growth.

Summary

The XAUUSD forecast for today suggests a decline with a target at 4,275 USD amid a breakout of the 4,605 USD level and stronger bearish signals, while consolidation above 4,855 USD will cancel the negative scenario and indicate renewed growth.

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