Weekly technical analysis and forecast (10–14 August 2026)

In this weekly technical analysis, we examine the key chart patterns and price levels for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, Gold (XAUUSD), US 500, and Bitcoin (BTCUSD) to forecast market developments for the week ahead (10–14 August 2026).

Major technical levels to watch this week

• EURUSD: Support: 1.1409, 1.1329. Resistance: 1.1553, 1.1670
• USDJPY: Support: 156.53, 153.59. Resistance: 157.87, 158.53
• GBPUSD: Support: 1.3328, 1.3146. Resistance: 1.3436, 1.3504
• AUDUSD: Support: 0.6990, 0.6920. Resistance: 0.7025, 0.7063
• USDCAD: Support: 1.3940, 1.3824. Resistance: 1.4068, 1.4123
• Gold: Support: 4,256, 4,070. Resistance: 4,512, 4,549
• US 500: Support: 7,618, 7,496. Resistance: 7,790, 7,930
• BTCUSD: Support: 61,523; 57,843. Resistance: 64,407; 67,285

EURUSD forecast

The coming week for EURUSD will be influenced by expectations regarding the future policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Following their July meetings, both central banks kept interest rates unchanged but continue to maintain a cautious stance due to persistent inflation risks. The ECB notes that rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions continue to pose inflation risks, meaning that future decisions will depend entirely on incoming macroeconomic data.

The dollar is also supported by the relatively hawkish rhetoric of Fed officials. The US regulator allows for restrictive monetary policy to remain in place for longer than expected if inflation begins to accelerate again. The market’s focus remains on US labour market data, inflation expectations, and government bond yields. Any strong economic figures could increase demand for the dollar, while weaker data may revive interest in the euro.

At the same time, market participants continue to monitor commodity markets closely. High oil prices support inflation expectations in both the United States and the eurozone, increasing uncertainty about the next steps of the central banks.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD daily chart continues to develop a downward wave structure. After the major upward wave ended around 1.2080, the market formed a sequence of declining waves, while the low around 1.1260 remains the main strategic target of the entire medium-term pattern.

The price is currently moving within a corrective range after the June decline. The rise of recent weeks remains purely corrective and is developing within a local ascending channel. At the same time, the move remains below the long-term descending resistance line, which is limiting the pair’s recovery.

The position of the price relative to the SMA50 is another factor maintaining pressure. The moving average is above current quotations and continues to act as dynamic resistance. Until the market can consolidate above this area, sellers retain the advantage.

The nearest pivot is 1.1553. This is where strong horizontal resistance is located, coinciding with the area of previous swing highs. A breakout above it would provide the first signal that the bearish scenario is weakening.

If the price fails to overcome this area, the probability of the current correction ending and a new downward wave forming will increase. In that case, the initial target for sellers will be 1.1409–1.1430, after which the market may test support at 1.1329. Consolidation below this level would significantly increase the probability of a continued decline towards the strategic target at 1.1260, marked on the chart as the end of the fifth wave.

From an Elliott wave perspective, the current recovery appears to be a corrective phase within a larger downward impulse. Until there is firm consolidation above the 1.1553–1.1670 area, the long-term technical picture continues to favour another wave of decline.

EURUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish (base case): the market is forming a correction below resistance at 1.1553. If buyers fail to consolidate above this level, a decline towards 1.1409 is likely, followed by 1.1329 and then a continuation of the move towards 1.1260.

Bullish (alternative): if EURUSD breaks decisively above 1.1553 and consolidates above this level, the correction may continue towards 1.1670. Consolidation above it would open the potential for further growth towards 1.1845.

USDJPY forecast

The coming week for USDJPY will be influenced by several fundamental factors at once. Following the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meetings, market participants continue to assess the outlook for interest rate dynamics. Fed officials maintain a cautious tone, emphasising the need for new inflation and labour market data before making further decisions. At the same time, the US economy continues to show resilience, supporting elevated US Treasury yields and maintaining the dollar’s appeal.

The situation surrounding the Japanese yen is another factor. Despite currency interventions and coordinated actions by Japanese and US authorities, most analysts believe that sustained yen appreciation remains unlikely without further tightening by the BoJ. The interest rate differential between the United States and Japan remains the main driver of USDJPY.

In the new week, investors will also closely monitor Japanese macroeconomic releases, including money supply and corporate price data, which may affect expectations regarding the BoJ’s next steps.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the daily chart, the market has fully completed the previously formed upward wave, reaching the main resistance area at 163.96. A strong bearish reaction followed from this level, accompanied by a breakout of the ascending channel and a sharp decline towards almost 157.00. This move confirms the completion of the fifth impulsive wave and the market’s transition into a deep correction phase.

The price is currently recovering after the sharp decline. According to the chart structure, the first target for buyers is 157.87. Consolidation above this level will open the way towards the next resistance at 158.53, where an important previous consolidation zone is located.

At the same time, the medium-term technical picture remains neutral-to-bearish. The price is trading below the local ascending channel, and the breakout of its lower boundary significantly weakened the structure of the uptrend. A reversal below the area of previous highs is another negative factor, increasing the probability of a full corrective wave developing.

If buyers fail to consolidate above 157.87–158.53, selling pressure may increase again. In this case, the nearest target will be support at 156.53. A breakout of this level would open the way towards the next important level at 153.59, which coincides with one of the key targets of the corrective pattern and the lower boundary of the long-term structure.

At the same time, a scenario in which the current decline is only the first corrective wave after the upward impulse ended cannot be ruled out. In that case, once a local base forms, the market may resume its recovery and subsequently test the 160.39 area. This level will be the key boundary determining the direction of the medium-term trend.

USDJPY forecast scenarios

Bullish (base case): after the impulsive decline is completed, the market will continue recovering above 157.87, followed by growth towards 158.53. If the price consolidates successfully above this zone, the move is likely to continue towards 160.39.

Bearish (alternative): if the price consolidates below 156.53, selling pressure will intensify, increasing the probability of a decline first towards 153.59 and then of a deeper correction.

GBPUSD forecast

The coming week for GBPUSD will be driven by expectations regarding the next steps of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as investors’ assessment of the global economic outlook following the latest macroeconomic releases. The US dollar remains supported by persistent expectations that the Fed will maintain restrictive monetary policy. The market continues to monitor inflation trends and US labour market conditions closely, as these indicators will determine the likelihood of the regulator’s future actions.

For the British pound, the Bank of England’s policy remains the main factor. Despite some easing in inflation, the regulator continues to point to elevated inflation risks linked to higher energy prices and persistent pressure in the labour market. At the same time, rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions have a mixed effect: on the one hand, they support inflation expectations and the likelihood of a more hawkish BoE policy; on the other, they increase the risks of slower UK economic growth. As a result, market participants remain cautious, limiting the potential for sustained sterling appreciation.

GBPUSD technical analysis

The GBPUSD daily chart retains a corrective structure after the previous downward wave ended. The price tested the 1.3436–1.3504 resistance area but failed to consolidate above it. This range remains the key zone, where the upper boundary of the local descending channel is located.

According to the Elliott wave structure, the market continues to form a corrective phase within a broader bearish scenario. The recovery attempt towards 1.3454 met active selling, confirming that sellers remain in control. The upper boundary of the descending channel, also running close to current prices, provides additional resistance.

The SMA50 is almost flat and is located around 1.3328, confirming the absence of a sustained medium-term trend. As long as the price remains below resistance at 1.3436, the priority is for a new downward wave to develop.

The nearest target for sellers is the 1.3328 area. A breakout of this level would open the way towards support at 1.3146, where buyers have previously become active. If the bearish momentum persists, the market may test stronger support at 1.3098, followed by a move towards the strategic 1.3004 level.

At the same time, the chart allows for the current correction to end in the form of sideways consolidation. This scenario assumes several swings within the 1.3328–1.3436 range before a new directional impulse develops. Only a firm breakout above 1.3504 would signal weakening bearish pressure and open the way for another test of the 1.3557 area.

GBPUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish scenario (base case): we expect the correction to end below 1.3436, followed by a decline towards 1.3328. After a breakout of this level, the downward move is likely to continue towards 1.3146.

Bullish scenario (alternative): if buyers manage to consolidate above 1.3504, the probability of further growth towards resistance at 1.3557 will increase.

AUDUSD forecast

The coming week is set to be one of the most important for AUDUSD in recent months. Market participants will focus primarily on the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision scheduled for 11 August, as well as on the outlook for monetary policy in Australia. With inflation remaining high and the labour market resilient, investors continue to discuss the likelihood of the RBA maintaining a hawkish stance despite signs of slowing activity in some parts of the economy. At the same time, relatively high commodity prices and steady demand for risk assets are supporting the Australian dollar.

On the US side, expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next steps remain the key factor. The latest comments from Fed officials confirm that the regulator is maintaining a cautious approach and continues to monitor inflation and labour market conditions closely. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and fluctuations in oil prices are adding volatility to the US dollar. For this reason, any strong US macroeconomic data could significantly change the balance of forces in the currency market.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The AUDUSD daily chart continues to develop a corrective structure after the decline into the 0.6873 area was completed. The price formed an upward recovery wave and approached the strong resistance zone at 0.7025–0.7063, where the pivot point (PP) is located. This area will determine the market’s next direction.

According to the current Elliott wave count, the fourth corrective wave is nearing completion. Over the last few trading days, buyers managed to push the price back above 0.6990, although the upward momentum is gradually slowing. This indicates weakening momentum as the price approaches key resistance.

The 0.7063 level remains the main barrier for buyers. Consolidation above it would signal a continuation of the corrective rise, with scope to test the July highs. However, as long as the price remains below this resistance, the main scenario is for the corrective structure to end and a fifth downward wave to develop.

On the chart, the 0.7025–0.7063 area coincides with a zone of increased seller activity. After consolidation is completed, the market may form a reversal pattern and begin a gradual decline, first towards support at 0.6990 and then towards 0.6920. If bearish momentum strengthens, the next strategic target is around 0.6775, which corresponds to the expected end of the fifth wave in the current Elliott wave structure.

A further confirmation of this scenario would be buyers’ inability to consolidate above the pivot point and the formation of a series of daily candles with long upper shadows. In this case, the probability of the market moving into a new bearish phase would increase significantly.

AUDUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish (base case): the corrective rise is expected to end around 0.7063. As long as trading remains below this level, a downward move towards 0.6920 followed by a decline towards 0.6775 is the most likely outcome.

Bullish (alternative): if the market consolidates firmly above 0.7063 amid stronger buying activity, further growth towards 0.7090–0.7140 can be expected.

USDCAD forecast

In the coming week, USDCAD dynamics will be determined by expectations regarding the next steps of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, as well as the release of key US and Canadian macroeconomic data. Following the latest comments from Fed officials, the market continues to price in the possibility of restrictive monetary policy being maintained amid persistent inflation, which supports the US dollar.

The situation in Canada appears more balanced. The Bank of Canada kept its interest rate at 2.2500%, noting a gradual economic recovery, although the regulator continues to monitor the impact of external trade risks and developments in commodity markets closely. At the same time, recent data showed strong foreign trade figures and improving economic growth, which supports the Canadian dollar.

The oil market remains another factor. Despite continued volatility in oil prices, Canada continues to benefit from its position as one of the world’s largest energy exporters. However, uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy and future trade relations between the United States and Canada limits the potential for CAD appreciation.

USDCAD technical analysis

USDCAD continues to form a medium-term upward structure. The daily chart shows the market moving within the main ascending channel while developing according to an Elliott wave pattern.

After wave 3 ended around 1.4245, the instrument entered a corrective phase. The price is currently holding near the psychological 1.4000 level, which acts as an intermediate balance point between buyers and sellers. The SMA50 is located slightly below the current price and continues to act as dynamic support, confirming that the medium-term uptrend remains intact.

According to the current wave count, a correction within wave 4 remains the most likely development in the coming days. The first recovery target is resistance at 1.4068. If the price consolidates above this level, the market may test the 1.4123 area, where the upper boundary of the nearest consolidation range is located.

If buyers fail to keep the market above the 1.3940 area, selling pressure will increase and the correction may extend towards the main support at 1.3824. This area corresponds to the expected end of wave 4 and the point where a new medium-term upward wave could form.

Once the correction is complete, the base wave scenario suggests the start of impulsive wave 5. Its first target will be a return to the 1.4245 high, after which there is potential for further growth towards the strategic target at 1.4310. This level represents the upper boundary of the current long-term ascending channel and the completion of the entire five-wave structure.

Therefore, despite the ongoing short-term correction, the overall technical picture remains favourable for the uptrend to continue once the current decline is complete.

USDCAD forecast scenarios

Bullish (base case): the correction is expected to end within the 1.3940–1.3824 range, followed by a new upward wave towards 1.4068 and then 1.4123. After consolidation above these levels, the main target will be 1.4245, with 1.4310 as the broader target.

Bearish (alternative): if the market consolidates firmly below 1.3940 on increased volumes, the probability of a continued decline towards 1.3824 will rise, where the possibility of forming a long-term reversal base will be assessed.

XAUUSD forecast

The coming week in the gold market will be driven by expectations regarding the Fed’s future policy, conditions in the US labour market, and geopolitical developments in the Middle East. By the end of this week, gold had recovered a significant part of its losses as weak US private-sector employment data reduced expectations of imminent monetary tightening. Lower US Treasury yields and a weaker dollar provided additional support for the precious metal.

At the same time, market participants continue to monitor negotiations surrounding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz closely. Any signs of de-escalation reduce inflation expectations through lower oil prices, but at the same time also reduce demand for safe-haven assets. If geopolitical tensions worsen again, interest in gold may rise sharply once more.

Overall, the fundamental backdrop remains mixed. On the one hand, gold is supported by softer expectations for Fed interest rates and lower bond yields. On the other hand, improving global risk appetite limits the potential for further gains. This is why the next US macroeconomic releases may prove decisive for the direction of XAUUSD.

XAUUSD technical analysis

The daily chart continues to form a recovery correction after a prolonged downward impulse. After reaching the June low around 3,919, the market formed a reversal structure and gradually moved into a phase of sustained growth.

At present, the price has broken above the upper boundary of the local triangle and consolidated above the 4,256 pivot point, confirming the development of an upward corrective wave. The next target for buyers is the 4,512–4,549 area, where the nearest resistance levels coincide with a zone of previous reversals. This is where the upward move is expected to face its first serious resistance.

The SMA50 continues to decline and remains above current prices, preserving the long-term bearish trend. As long as the price stays below this moving average, the current rise should be viewed as a corrective move within a larger downward structure.

According to the wave count, once the rise towards 4,512–4,549 is completed, a new corrective wave down towards 4,256 is likely. If this support holds, the market may form another upward wave and retest resistance at 4,549. Only firm consolidation above this zone would allow for a move towards 4,759, where the next strategic target for buyers is located.

An alternative scenario also remains possible. If the rise stalls below resistance at 4,512–4,549 and sellers return the price below 4,256, the corrective structure will be considered complete. In this case, the probability of the main downtrend resuming will increase, with an initial target around 4,070 followed by a move towards key support at 3,919, marked on the chart as the long-term downside target.

Overall, the technical picture remains neutral-to-positive for the coming week, although the long-term advantage still lies with sellers until the price consolidates above the 4,550 area.

XAUUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish (base case): after the rise towards 4,512–4,549 is completed, a correction back towards 4,256 is expected. A loss of this level will open the way towards 4,070 and then 3,919.

Bullish (alternative): if buyers consolidate firmly above 4,549 on rising volumes, the next target will be around 4,759, with potential for a further medium-term recovery.

US 500 forecast

The US stock market is ending the first week of August near record highs, maintaining a steady uptrend. The S&P 500 index continues to be supported by strong earnings reports from major technology companies, the ongoing investment cycle in artificial intelligence, and relatively stable US macroeconomic data. The earnings season has been notably better than expected, allowing investors to maintain strong interest in risk assets despite rising US government bond yields.

At the same time, the market is gradually shifting its focus towards upcoming inflation data. These figures will be the key reference point for the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Following the latest comments from Fed officials, expectations for restrictive monetary policy to remain in place are still high, while the probability of a rate increase in September has risen noticeably. This limits the potential for further gains in stock indices and may lead to higher volatility as early as next week.

Geopolitics remains another factor. Despite some easing of tensions in the Middle East and stabilisation in oil prices, investors continue to monitor developments closely, as any deterioration could quickly revive demand for safe-haven assets.

US 500 technical analysis

From a technical perspective, the index maintains a firmly bullish structure. After the July correction, buyers regained the initiative and formed a new impulsive upward wave. The chart shows that the market has almost fully reached the previous target around 7,790 points and is now testing the upper boundary of the local ascending range.

The main pivot area for the coming week remains 7,618–7,496. This zone defines the short-term balance between buyers and sellers. As long as the price holds above it, the advantage remains with the bulls.

Another positive factor is that the price is trading well above the SMA50, which continues to rise steadily and confirms the persistence of the long-term uptrend. The longer moving average is also pointing upwards, indicating no signs of a change in the global direction.

According to the Elliott wave structure, the market is completing another upward impulsive wave. After reaching the local target near 7,790, a corrective phase is highly likely. Such a correction would be natural after the rapid rise of recent weeks and would help ease local overbought conditions.

If demand remains strong, the first target for buyers will be a retest of the 7,790 area. Consolidation above this level will open the way towards the main strategic target at 7,930, marked on the chart as the next resistance level. This is where the upper boundary of the current forecast channel is located.

If sellers manage to push the price back below 7,618, the probability of a deeper correction towards 7,496 will increase. As long as this support remains intact, the move should be treated only as a correction within the main uptrend rather than a reversal.

US 500 forecast scenarios

Bearish (base case): after the growth wave towards 7,790 is completed, the market may enter a correction phase with a pullback towards 7,618–7,496, where a new base for the subsequent move is expected to form.

Bullish (alternative): firm consolidation above 7,790 will confirm the continuation of the upward momentum, with potential growth towards the strategic target at 7,930.

BTCUSD forecast

Bitcoin is ending the first week of August near the 64,500–65,000 USD area, maintaining neutral dynamics after a period of heightened volatility. The main market drivers remain expectations regarding the future Fed policy, movements in US bond yields, institutional demand through spot ETFs, and investors’ overall appetite for risk assets. At present, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has somewhat improved risk appetite, although the market continues to assess the outlook for US monetary policy cautiously.

Capital inflows into spot ETFs continue to provide additional support for Bitcoin, although their volumes remain significantly below the levels seen during the active uptrend. Institutional investors remain interested in digital assets but prefer to act cautiously while awaiting new macroeconomic data. At the same time, corporate transactions by large BTC holders continue to cause short-term fluctuations but have not yet had a critical impact on the market’s long-term structure.

BTCUSD technical analysis

The daily chart remains in a broad consolidation phase after the strong downward wave ended in late May. The price is currently moving within a sideways range, forming a local corrective structure near the matrix pivot point.

The nearest resistance is located in the 64,400–

64,700 area, where a local supply zone is situated. Around these levels, the market has repeatedly halted buyers’ attempts to develop upward momentum. Consolidation above this area will provide the first technical confirmation of a new upward wave.

The next target for buyers will be 67,285, which coincides with the previous resistance area and an intermediate target in the Elliott wave structure. If the upward momentum develops further, there is potential for a move towards 70,792, where an important higher-order resistance level is located.

On the downside, the main support remains the

61,523–62,347 zone. Stable demand has repeatedly emerged here in recent weeks, preventing sellers from developing another downward wave. As long as the price remains above this area, the medium-term structure stays neutral.

At the same time, the chart still allows for another downward wave within the current range. If the price falls below 61,523, selling pressure will increase significantly, with the next target at 57,843, which coincides with the lower boundary of the current pattern and an important long-term support. From this area, the chart considers the possibility of a new medium-term upward wave with potential movement towards 70,800–82,000.

Overall, the technical picture remains consolidative. The market continues to build positions within the range while waiting for a new fundamental driver.

BTCUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish (base case): if pressure persists below 64,400, the market may retest support at 62,350–61,520. A breakout below 61,523 will open the way for a decline towards 57,843.

Bullish (alternative): consolidation above 64,400 and a breakout of the 67,285 level will confirm a new upward wave with potential growth towards 70,792.

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