Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: pause does not interfere with overall rally

Gold (XAUUSD) stabilised near 4,050 per ounce, trading close to the all-time high of 4,058. Support comes from expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts following the September easing decision and strong demand for safe-haven assets amid the US government shutdown. Additional drivers include central bank purchases and persistent geopolitical tensions.

This forecast outlines the key factors likely to shape gold dynamics during the week of 13–17 October.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly trend: XAUUSD is hovering near the all-time high of 4,058 per ounce with continued upward momentum. Growth is supported by dovish Federal Reserve rhetoric, safe-haven demand, and the ongoing US shutdown, creating market uncertainty
• Support and resistance: the nearest support level is at 3,940, followed by 3,627 and 3,245, with the resistance level at 4,058–4,1An upward breakout would open the path to 4,150, while consolidation below 3,940 signals a correction towards 3,850–3,800
• Fundamentals: expectations of two more Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, a weaker dollar, and a pause in data releases due to the shutdown create a favourable environment for gold, with central bank and institutional investor purchases providing additional support
• Outlook: the baseline scenario for 13–17 October suggests consolidation above 3,940 with potential to set new records in the 4,100–4,150 zone. A downward breakout would signal a moderate correction, while the overall trend remains bullish

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) ended the week near 4,020 per ounce, undergoing a minor correction after hitting the all-time high above 4,050. The pullback is mainly driven by profit-taking and a partial easing of geopolitical risks. The fundamental backdrop for the precious metal remains steadily positive.

The primary growth driver remains the Fed’s dovish stance. Following the 25-basis-point cut in September, the market fully prices in another move in October and almost 90% probability for December. The FOMC minutes confirmed the Federal Reserve’s concerns over labour market conditions and persistent inflation risks, boosting expectations for further monetary easing.

The ongoing US government shutdown, now entering its second week, adds further support. Due to the suspension of federal agencies, macroeconomic data releases, including the key September jobs report, are delayed. With a lack of official statistics, investor attention has shifted to private indicators, which suggest job losses and weakening business activity. This increases demand for safe-haven assets and reduces the dollar’s appeal.

On the geopolitical front, signs of easing tensions in the Middle East also influenced market dynamics. Donald Trump’s statement on an agreement between Israel and Hamas regarding the first phase of a peace plan triggered a temporary dip in gold prices, although strategic interest remains high, particularly from central banks and institutional funds, which are increasing their gold reserves.

Gold has surged over 50% year-to-date, marking its strongest performance since 1979.

XAUUSD technical analysis

The XAUUSD daily chart shows that after a prolonged consolidation between 3,245 and 3,625, prices broke sharply upwards in mid-September. Since then, gold has entered a sustained uptrend, setting a new all-time high at 4,058 per ounce.

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly, reflecting increased volatility and confirming strong bullish momentum. Prices continue to move along the channel’s upper boundary, showing no signs of deep corrections. MACD remains firmly in positive territory and continues to climb, signalling strong buyer control.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory, indicating a potential short-term pause or technical correction following the impressive rally.

The nearest support zone is around 3,940, while the key resistance level lies at 4,058. Consolidation above this level could pave the way for new record highs in the 4,100–4,150 range. A breakout below 3,940 may lead to a pullback towards the 3,850–3,800 area.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental background for gold remains positive: expectations of further Fed rate cuts, a weakening US dollar, and strong demand for safe-haven assets continue to support buyer interest. An additional factor is the US shutdown, which amplifies uncertainty and enhances gold's appeal as an alternative asset.

• Buy scenario:

Long positions remain in focus if prices hold above the 3,940 support level. A rebound from this zone may push prices to 4,050–4,100, with consolidation above this level likely to open the door for a move towards 4,150. A fresh dovish message from the Fed and weak US private labour data would provide additional upside momentum.

• Sell scenario:

Short positions become relevant if prices break below the 3,940 level. In this case, targets shift to 3,850–3,800. Downward pressure on gold will increase with a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields.

Conclusion: gold remains within the 3,940–4,058 range. The baseline scenario for the week is consolidation above 3,940 with potential movement to 4,100–4,150. A breakout below the support level would signal a moderate correction, but the overall uptrend remains intact.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading near record highs around 4,050 amid expectations of continued Fed policy easing, US dollar weakness, and high safe-haven demand. Additional support comes from institutional and central bank gold purchases.

Upside is limited by profit-taking after the recent record and a modest increase in US bond yields. Key levels include the 3,940 support level and resistance in the 4,058–4,100 area. A breakout above 4,100 would open the way to new highs near 4,150, while consolidation below 3,940 would increase the risk of a correction towards 3,850–3,800.

In the coming days, gold’s performance will depend on comments from Fed officials, expectations of an imminent rate cut, news surrounding the US shutdown, and geopolitical developments.

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