Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: potential for growth, but risks remain

Gold (XAUUSD) consolidated near 3,750 per ounce, hovering close to its all-time high of 3,790. Support for the metal comes from expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts following the September easing decision. Additional drivers include rising geopolitical tensions and steady demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

This forecast outlines the key factors shaping gold’s dynamics for the week of 29 September – 3 October.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly dynamics: gold (XAUUSD) continues to rise after breaking out of a months-long consolidation. Prices are hovering near 3,750 and remain within the uptrend. The move is supported by expectations of further Fed easing, sustained safe-haven demand, and intensifying geopolitical risks
• Support and resistance: the key support level lies at 3,627, followed by 3,500 and 3,44A downward breakout would deepen the correction. The immediate resistance level stands at 3,750, with the key mark at the all-time high near 3,79An upward breakout would open the way to new records
• Fundamentals: the backdrop remains favourable for buyers: dovish Federal Reserve rhetoric, expectations of more rate cuts, declining Treasury yields, geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank demand
• Outlook: the base case for 29 September – 3 October is consolidation above 3,627 with upside potential towards 3,750–3,790 and a possible record high. A breakout below 3,627 would increase pressure and bring gold back to 3,500–3,440

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

Gold ends the week down at 3,740 USD per ounce, retreating from record highs under pressure from a stronger US dollar. Robust US data, including a drop in jobless claims and a revised Q2 GDP growth rate of 3.8%, dampened expectations of rapid Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The likelihood of easing at the next meeting fell from 90% to 85%.

Gold’s safe-haven status is still supported by rising geopolitical tensions and new US tariff threats. Donald Trump announced new tariffs starting 1 October, with 100% on branded drug imports, 25% on heavy trucks, 50% on kitchen furniture, and 30% on upholstered furniture.

Weekly summary: gold remains close to highs, but its performance still depends on the balance of US macroeconomic data and global political risks.

XAUUSD technical analysis

From April to August, gold (XAUUSD) traded within a broad sideways range with the support level near 3,245 and resistance around 3,440–3,500. In late August, it broke out of consolidation and entered a strong uptrend.

By 26 September, prices had reached the 3,750–3,760 USD per ounce zone, nearing the 3,790 high, which serves as a key resistance level. Indicators confirm the trend’s strength: MACD remains in positive territory, and Bollinger Bands have widened upwards. However, the Stochastic shows signs of overbought conditions, increasing the likelihood of a pullback.

Thus, gold maintains a strong bullish trend, but risks of a temporary correction towards 3,627 are growing near all-time highs.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental backdrop for gold remains favourable, with expectations of further Fed easing, strong safe-haven demand, and geopolitical tensions all supporting buying interest.

• Buy scenario

Long positions become relevant if prices hold above the 3,627 support level. A rebound from this level could push prices towards 3,750 and then 3,790, the key resistance area. Additional drivers include weak US labour market data and falling Treasury yields.

• Sell scenario

Short positions are possible if prices break below the 3,627 level. In that case, targets shift to 3,500 and then 3,440. The downward momentum would strengthen amid strong US macroeconomic data and rising bond yields, which would boost the dollar.

Conclusion

Gold is holding within the 3,627–3,790 range. The base case suggests consolidation above 3,627 with the potential to reach new highs if the Federal Reserve maintains a dovish stance. A breakout below the support level would open the door to a deeper correction back to 3,500.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) remains near all-time highs thanks to expectations of continued Fed easing and robust safe-haven demand. Geopolitical risks and central bank purchases provide additional support.

Upside is limited by a stronger dollar and higher bond yields. Key levels are support at 3,627 and resistance around 3,750 and 3,790. A breakout above 3,790 would pave the way to new records, while consolidation below 3,627 increases the likelihood of a correction towards 3,500 and 3,440. Prices remain near the top of the range, with future movement hinging on inflation data and Fed commentary.

Open Account