Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: bullish sentiment for record highs remains strong

Gold (XAUUSD) is hovering around 3,648 USD per ounce, near local highs and close to historical levels. The rally is supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the 17 September meeting, with the market estimating a 25-basis-point dovish move as almost guaranteed. Additional demand for gold is being driven by geopolitical tensions and increased investor interest in safe-haven assets.

This analysis explores the key factors that could influence gold dynamics during the week of 15–19 September.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly dynamics

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to hit new local highs, consolidating above the 3,585 level. The rally was supported by expectations of Fed policy easing at the 17 September meeting, weak US labour market data, and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets.

• Support and resistance

The nearest support level lies at 3,585, followed by 3,508. A breakout below them could trigger a correction towards 3,440. The resistance level is located at the all-time high of 3,674 USD. Consolidation above it would open the path to new record levels.

• Fundamentals

Gold is getting a boost from expectations of an almost guaranteed Federal Reserve rate cut in September and signs of a cooling US labour market. Additional bullish pressure comes from geopolitical risks. Falling bond yields and a weakening US dollar further boost the metal’s appeal.

• Forecast

The baseline scenario for 15–19 September suggests consolidation above 3,585 with the potential to test and break above the 3,674 resistance level. Consolidation above this resistance would pave the way to new all-time highs.

If a correction occurs below 3,585, the risk of a pullback to 3,508 and deeper support levels will increase.

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) ended the week trading near 3,640 USD per ounce, approaching record highs and extending its bullish trend for the fourth consecutive week. The rally is driven by expectations of imminent Fed easing at the 17 September meeting.

US data showed stable annual inflation in August, in line with forecasts, following an unexpected drop in producer prices.

Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims reached a four-year high, confirming labour market softness. These developments strengthened market confidence in a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut, and speculation about a more aggressive move continues to grow.

Geopolitical tensions remain an additional driver for gold demand. The US has increased pressure on G7 allies to raise tariffs on India and China for purchasing Russian oil. Tensions in the Middle East have also escalated.

Combined, monetary and geopolitical factors continue to fuel gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. The market approaches the new week with a bullish tilt.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, gold (XAUUSD) is trading near 3,648 USD per ounce after a strong rally since mid-August. Prices surged from 3,440 and hit new highs at 3,674, marking a breakout from a long consolidation phase that previously held gold in the 3,245–3,508 range for several months.

Indicators confirm the strength of the current impulse. Bollinger Bands are widening, and prices are holding near the upper band, indicating high volatility and steady demand. MACD shows the histogram rising above the zero line, signalling a developing bullish trend. The Stochastic is in overbought territory, which increases the likelihood of a short-term pullback.

Key support levels are at 3,508 and 3,245, with resistance remaining at the 3,674 high. Consolidation above this mark will open the path to new records. A correction may remain limited to the 3,585–3,550 area.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental backdrop remains bullish, with demand driven by geopolitical risks, growing interest in safe-haven assets, and the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

• Buy scenario

Long positions remain valid while prices hold above the 3,585 support level. A rebound from this mark could push prices towards 3,674, and under favourable headlines, towards new record highs. Further declines in US bond yields would provide additional bullish momentum.

• Sell scenario

Short positions become viable if prices break below 3,585.

In this case, the next targets would be 3,508 and 3,440.

A stronger downward move could unfold if US macroeconomic data beats expectations and bond yields rise, strengthening the US dollar and weakening gold’s appeal.

Conclusion

Gold is consolidating within the 3,585–3,674 range. The baseline scenario suggests XAUUSD could hold its position with potential for upside if the Fed delivers dovish messaging and labour market data remains weak. A breakout below 3,585 would signal the beginning of a deeper correction.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) remains near local highs, bolstered by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and weak US labour market data, which boosts demand for safe-haven assets.

However, gains are limited by positive stock market dynamics and sustained investor appetite for risk, which reduces demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Additional risks are associated with geopolitical tensions and US trade policy initiatives.

The key support level lies at 3,585, while resistance is at the all-time high of 3,674. A breakout above 3,674 would open the way to new record levels. A move below 3,585 would increase the likelihood of a decline towards 3,508 and potentially to 3,440. As long as prices remain near the top of the current range, the market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic data and political developments.

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