Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: a good chance of an upward breakout from the sideways range

Gold (XAUUSD) remains in the sideways range between 3,350 and 3,380 USD per ounce. The key drivers are expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and rising demand for safe-haven assets amid new US tariffs against India, Brazil, and semiconductor imports.

Investors also focus on a possible change in Fed leadership — Trump may announce candidates for the position of chairman and a new member of the Board of Governors by the end of the week, increasing uncertainty around monetary policy.

This article analyses what to expect next for gold.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly dynamics:

Gold (XAUUSD) finished the first full week of August with gains near 3,380 USD per ounce, a two-week high. The price recovery is driven by dollar weakness, rate cut expectations, and rising geopolitical risks. US tariff measures against India, Brazil, and semiconductor imports supported gold. The weekly low was 3,350, with the high at 3,384.

• Key support:

The 3,350 level remains a critical technical base. A downward breakout could push prices towards the 3,245 area. Additional pressure is possible if US Treasury yields rise or if the Fed adopts a more hawkish tone.

• Key resistance:

The immediate resistance level lies at 3,415, followed by 3,435 and 3,500. A breakout above 3,435 amid weak US macroeconomic data may signal a stronger upward movement.

• Fundamental drivers:

Gold is supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with markets pricing in a 90% probability of easing in September and the second cut by December. Investors also monitor potential personnel changes at the Fed and increased political pressure on the central bank. Trump’s trade actions and weak labour market data add to demand for safe-haven assets.

• General sentiment:

General sentiment is positive. As long as gold holds above 3,350, the growth potential remains. Consolidation may give way to an upward breakout if the Fed confirms a dovish stance and global risks rise.

• XAUUSD forecast for the week:

The baseline scenario is movement within the 3,350-3,435 range with an attempt to break higher. A consolidation above 3,435 would open the path to 3,500. The support levels are at 3,350 and 3,245. Key triggers include employment data, PPI inflation, and Fed-related news.

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) is gaining amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of a Fed rate cut, trading at 3,380 USD per ounce. The precious metal reached a two-week high and recouped earlier losses.

New US tariffs supported prices, with President Donald Trump announcing a 100% duty on semiconductor imports, excluding US-made products. He also raised tariffs on Indian goods by 25% and on certain Brazilian imports by up to 50%. These actions increased global trade risk concerns and fuelled demand for safe-haven assets.

Additional upward momentum came from weak US economic data, including declining service sector activity and signs of a cooling labour market. These reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. According to the consensus forecast, the probability of this move exceeds 90%.

Investors are closely monitoring personnel changes at the Fed: a successor to the outgoing Adriana Kugler is expected to be appointed in the near term. News may also emerge regarding candidates to replace Jerome Powell, raising questions again about the Fed’s independence. In this context, gold continues to enjoy steady demand as a long-term hedge.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, Gold (XAUUSD) is hovering around 3,377, staying in the upper part of the broad range of recent months. The nearest resistance level lies at 3,416, the late-June high. A breakout could push prices to historical highs around 3,501. Meanwhile, the support level is at 3,245, a level that previously triggered strong rebounds.

Prices are nearing the upper Bollinger Band, signalling buyer dominance but also suggesting possible short-term overheating. The Stochastic Oscillator has entered the overbought zone, increasing the likelihood of a correction. MACD remains in positive territory, but the histogram is narrowing as momentum is weakening.

Overall, the market remains in a consolidation phase. Unless gold breaks out of the 3,245-3,416 range, the direction remains uncertain. An upward breakout would signal trend continuation, while a pullback may send prices to the support level.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental backdrop remains mixed.

On the one hand, weak US activity and labour data, along with persistent expectations for a September Fed rate cut (90% likelihood), support gold. On the other hand, the growth of stock indices and corporate earnings dampens interest in safe-haven assets. US trade actions against India and Brazil and possible personnel changes at the Fed also add to uncertainty. Against this backdrop, gold starts the week near 3,380, in the upper part of the range.

• Buy scenario

Long positions remain a priority as long as the 3,350 support level remains intact. This zone aligns with the 50-day Moving Average and the lower boundary of the current consolidation. A renewed bounce with a reversal pattern could drive growth into the 3,435-3,450 area. An additional catalyst for buying would be a weak US unemployment report. In that case, a surge towards 3,500 – the upper boundary of the yearly range – becomes possible.

• Sell (short) scenario

Shorts become viable if the 3,350 level breaks to the downside. A consolidation below this level would strengthen the signal for a correction towards 3,245 and potentially 3,118.

This scenario gains traction if US bond yields rise, the dollar stabilises, and the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish tone. Selling also makes sense amid improving global risk appetite and lower volatility.

• Conclusion:

Gold remains in a sideways consolidation phase between 3,350 and 3,435. Until it breaks out, the market will balance between Federal Reserve easing expectations and interest in risk assets. The base case is moderate growth with an attempt to break above 3,435 and move towards 3,500 if news flow proves supportive.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) ended the first week of August near the upper boundary of its range, around 3,380 USD per ounce. Gains were driven by weak US macroeconomic data, Fed rate cut expectations, and Trump’s new tariff measures, which increased interest in safe-haven assets.

However, the market remains in a consolidation phase: there are no clear signals from the Federal Reserve on the timing of easing, while recovering risk appetite limits gold’s upside potential. Market participants continue to assess the impact of tariffs, Fed personnel changes, and US dollar weakness.

Technically, the range has shifted higher, with the support level at 3,350 and the resistance level at 3,435. Consolidation above this level could open the door for a move towards 3,500. Until then, short-term strategies remain in focus – range trading based on US news and global risk events.