XAUUSD remains under pressure after US CPI data

XAUUSD quotes are correcting near the key support level amid firm US macroeconomic data. Prices currently stand at 4,331 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 14 September 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month after a 0.1% increase in July
• Traders sharply raised the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike to 86%
• XAUUSD forecast for 14 September 2026: 4,235

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices are correcting near the 4,315 USD support level, while selling pressure persists. Fresh US inflation data has become an additional factor weighing on demand for gold.

According to the US Department of Labor, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% year-on-year in August, maintaining July’s pace of growth and matching market expectations. Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.4% after rising 0.1% in July, also in line with expectations.

The core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, was up 2.4% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month in August. Analysts had expected increases of 2.4% and 0.2%, respectively. In July, the indicator rose 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month.

Following the release, traders raised the estimated probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike to 86%, up from 67% a day earlier. Growing expectations of tighter monetary policy are adding to pressure on gold and limiting its recovery potential. Against this backdrop, today’s XAUUSD forecast remains bearish.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes are testing the lower boundary of the bullish channel and remain below the EMA-65, indicating increased selling pressure. Today’s XAUUSD forecast suggests further downside towards the 4,235 USD target.

Technical indicators continue to give predominantly bearish signals. The Stochastic Oscillator has formed a bearish crossover, indicating the end of the correction and increasing selling pressure. Consolidation below 4,325 USD would be an additional signal in favour of further downside. This scenario would confirm a breakout below the lower boundary of the correction channel and create conditions for a further strengthening of the downward momentum.

An alternative scenario would come into play if prices break above a local resistance level and consolidate above 4,360 USD. In this case, the upward movement could continue, opening the way for buyers towards the next resistance level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,360 and 4,395
• Key support levels: 4,325 and 4,305

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish correction channel, followed by consolidation below 4,325, would indicate increased selling pressure and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Current price: 4,331
• Entry level: 4,325
• Stop loss: 4,360
• Take profit: 4,235
• Risk-to-reward ratio: above 1:2.5

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 15 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

A risk to the bearish outlook for XAUUSD would be a breakout above the local resistance level and consolidation above 4,360 USD. In this case, the upward movement would continue, fully invalidating the current technical sell signals and opening the way for buyers towards the next resistance level.

Summary

The release of firm US inflation data triggered a sharp rise in market expectations for a further Federal Reserve interest rate hike to 86%. Against this backdrop, XAUUSD remains under strong pressure.

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