The Fed could give gold a new boost: XAUUSD on the verge of a breakout

US data could provide additional support for gold and trigger a new wave of growth. XAUUSD prices are currently trading at 4,633 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 26 August 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Today's main focus is on the US July PCE price index
• China's gold imports via Hong Kong rose by around 11% in July
• XAUUSD forecast for 26 August 2026: 4,720 and 4,555

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 26 August 2026, shows that gold continues a corrective wave after reaching its highest levels in more than three months and is testing the 4,633 USD mark.

Today, the main focus is on the US July PCE, an inflation gauge closely watched by the Federal Reserve. A low actual reading could strengthen expectations of monetary policy easing and support gold, while accelerating inflation would increase the risk of rates remaining high and raise the likelihood of a future rate hike.

An increase in long-term Treasury buybacks has already led to lower yields and a weaker US dollar. This is positive for gold, as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset.

China's gold imports via Hong Kong rose by around 11% in July, indicating a recovery in investment demand from Chinese buyers.

The XAUUSD forecast for 26 August 2026 takes into account that gold is being supported by a weaker US dollar, lower Treasury yields, strong demand for the metal, and expectations of Fed monetary easing. The key events over the coming days are the US July PCE data and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech in Jackson Hole on 28 August.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. As this pattern signal develops, quotes continue to form a corrective wave. Since XAUUSD prices remain within an ascending channel, a target for the pullback could be the 4,555 USD support level.

At the same time, today's XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests another scenario, in which prices rise towards 4,720 USD and continue their upward trajectory without testing the support level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,665 and 4,720
• Key support levels: 4,615 and 4,555

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the resistance level and consolidation above 4,665 USD would indicate that the correction is ending and buying pressure is increasing.

• Current price: 4,633
• Entry level: 4,665
• Take profit: 4,720
• Stop loss: 4,645
• Risk-to-reward ratio: more than 1:2

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 4,615 USD support level would indicate increased bearish pressure and a continued correction.

• Entry level: 4,615
• Take profit: 4,555
• Stop loss: 4,635
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3

The trade idea is valid until 12:00 AM on 27 August 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bullish scenario is the release of stronger-than-expected US PCE data, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively, as well as a new wave of escalation in the Middle East conflict.

Summary

Gold is awaiting the release of US macroeconomic data and a speech by the Federal Reserve chairman. Today's XAUUSD technical analysis suggests a correction towards 4,555 USD before further growth.

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