Gold (XAUUSD) is trading sideways

XAUUSD quotes remain under pressure due to rising US inflation and expectations of continued tight Federal Reserve policy, currently standing at 4,686 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 14 May 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US inflation strengthened expectations that the Fed will maintain a hawkish policy
• High interest rates are making gold less attractive to investors
• Investors are assessing the impact of the Beijing talks on the situation in the Middle East
• XAUUSD forecast for 14 May 2026: 4,415

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes continue to hold within a sideways range. After declining for two consecutive trading sessions, prices stabilised near the 4,665 USD support level, but pressure on the metal remains.

Downward pressure on gold intensified after the release of fresh US inflation data. Accelerating inflation has fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer or even tighten monetary policy further. Against this backdrop, the US dollar strengthened, while US bond yields continued to rise, limiting the recovery potential of XAUUSD. For gold, this situation remains unfavourable, as high interest rates increase the attractiveness of yield-bearing assets and reduce investor interest in the precious metal.

Market participants are currently adopting a wait-and-see approach. Investors are assessing the prospects of the Beijing talks and their possible influence on the situation in the Middle East. At the same time, the market may be overestimating the likelihood of a rapid improvement in the geopolitical backdrop, so demand for safe-haven assets remains unstable.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes are undergoing a correction within a descending channel. Although prices remain above the EMA-65, selling pressure persists. Today’s XAUUSD forecast suggests a rebound from the range’s upper boundary, followed by a downward momentum towards 4,415 USD.

The technical picture remains bearish. The Stochastic Oscillator rebounded from the resistance line and also formed a bearish crossover, signalling a high likelihood of continued downward momentum. A breakout below the lower boundary of the correction channel and consolidation below 4,655 would strengthen the sell signal for XAUUSD.

An alternative scenario suggests renewed growth if prices break above the upper boundary of the medium-term bearish channel and consolidate above 4,735. In this case, the probability of a renewed bullish momentum will increase.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways
• Key resistance levels: 4,695 and 4,885
• Key support levels: 4,665 and 4,535

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel, with prices consolidating below the 4,660 level, would signal an opportunity to open short positions.

• Take Profit: 4,415
• Stop Loss: 4,715

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 4,715 level would indicate increased buying pressure and a bullish momentum.

• Take Profit: 4,905
• Stop Loss: 4,675

Risk factors

Risks to the XAUUSD downside scenario could include a weakening of the US dollar, lower US bond yields, and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which may bring back demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Summary

Today’s technical analysis for XAUUSD indicates continued downward pressure, with a high probability of a further decline towards the 4,415 USD level if sellers keep quotes below the 4,655 USD resistance level.

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