XAUUSD loses ground following Trump’s statements

XAUUSD quotes remain under pressure amid heightened geopolitical risks and a failure to consolidate above the key resistance level. Prices currently stand at 4,644 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 7 April 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Donald Trump is threatening to strike Iran’s civilian infrastructure
• Gold remains under pressure after rebounding from the resistance level
• The bearish scenario for XAUUSD remains in place today
• XAUUSD forecast for 7 April 2026: 4,245

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are declining for the second consecutive trading session, while buyers continue to hold prices above the 4,585 USD support level. The asset remains under pressure after failing to consolidate above the 4,795 USD resistance level.

The market is focused on geopolitical risks. President Donald Trump’s threats to strike Iran’s civilian infrastructure have increased investor concern about the possible economic consequences of a prolonged conflict. In particular, this refers to potential attacks on power plants and bridges if his demands are not met by the Tuesday evening deadline in Eastern Time, including the issue of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold remains under pressure after rebounding from the resistance level; however, its ability to hold above 4,585 USD suggests that cautious demand persists amid geopolitical uncertainty, which maintains the bearish outlook for XAUUSD today.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes continue their corrective decline, while holding above the EMA-65, indicating continued moderate support from buyers. However, despite the ongoing uncertainty, the XAUUSD forecast for today suggests a downward move with a target at 4,245 USD.

The technical picture remains in favour of sellers. The Stochastic Oscillator is rebounding from the descending resistance line and has formed a bearish crossover, increasing the probability of a new downward momentum. An additional signal is the indicator’s position in overbought territory. A breakout of the lower boundary of the bullish corrective channel, with quotes consolidating below 4,495 USD, would confirm the downside scenario.

An alternative scenario suggests renewed growth in gold prices. A breakout above the channel’s upper boundary and consolidation above 4,705 USD would open the way for an upward momentum.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 4,795 and 4,965
• Key support levels: 4,585 and 4,465

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Limit)

A rebound from the upper boundary of the descending channel at 4,660 would confirm stronger selling pressure and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 4,245
• Stop Loss: 4,710

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 4,705 would indicate a breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel and a continued bullish correction.

• Take Profit: 4,970
• Stop Loss: 4,730

Risk factors

The risks to the XAUUSD downside scenario today are associated with a possible increase in demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions, as well as a breakout of the resistance level and price consolidation above 4,705 USD, which may lead to a corrective impulse.

Summary

The XAUUSD forecast for today indicates the priority of developing a downward move towards 4,245 USD if selling pressure remains in place, despite the restraining support above the EMA-65.

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