Gold storms the market: XAUUSD is poised for a big move after fresh US data
Gold continues to strengthen, with XAUUSD prices crossing the psychological threshold of 4,200 USD and now trading around 4,240 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 1 December 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- US manufacturing PMI: previously at 52.5, projected at 51.9
- Current trend: moving upwards
- XAUUSD forecast for 1 December 2025: 4,300
Fundamental analysis
The XAUUSD forecast for today indicates that gold continues to recover, currently trading near 4,240 USD per ounce.
The manufacturing PMI measures purchasing managers’ activity in the industrial sector. It reflects the state of manufacturing and production dynamics in the country. Purchasing managers are among the first to see changes in business conditions, making PMI a key indicator of the broader economic outlook. Values above 50.0 indicate expansion, while readings below 50.0 signal contraction.
The XAUUSD forecast for 1 December 2025 considers that the US manufacturing PMI may decline to 51.9 points, down from 52.5 previously. Although the decline is moderate, it reflects a cooling outlook in the US manufacturing sector.
Amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, the USD continues to gradually lose ground – this restores gold’s status as a safe-haven asset.
Technically, XAUUSD quotes have already broken above the psychologically important 4,200 USD mark, which may provide an additional bullish impulse if supportive news emerges.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. Quotes currently continue an upward wave following this signal. Since XAUUSD remains within the ascending channel, the next upside target could be 4,300 USD.
At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also considers an alternative scenario, which includes a correction towards 4,210 USD before resuming growth.
The potential for continued upward momentum remains intact, and in the near term, XAUUSD quotes may advance towards the next psychological target at 4,500 USD.
Summary
The USD is losing ground ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests continued upward movement, with an upside target at 4,300 USD.
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.