Gold (XAUUSD) on the verge of a breakout: what the first post-shutdown data is hiding
While waiting for US statistics, XAUUSD is forming a correction and trading near 4,070 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 20 November 2025
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- Change in US Nonfarm Payrolls for September: previously at – 22 thousand, projected at 53 thousand
- US unemployment rate for September: previously at 4.3%, projected at 4.3%
- Current trend: moving upwards
- XAUUSD forecast for 20 November 2025: 4,220
Fundamental analysis
Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold is forming a correction amid the broader recovery, with prices currently trading near 4,070 USD per ounce.
The XAUUSD forecast for 20 November 2025 takes into account that today, for the first time since the end of the US government shutdown, labour market data will be released.
US Nonfarm Payrolls for September are expected to rise to 53 thousand, up from 22 thousand previously. If the actual reading aligns with expectations, the market may see elevated volatility and a temporary strengthening of the US dollar. The publication of Nonfarm Payrolls almost always triggers turbulence in financial markets and can support the dollar or, on the contrary, sharply weaken it.
The XAUUSD forecast for today also considers that the US unemployment rate for September may remain unchanged at 4.3%. Stability relative to the previous reading would be a neutral factor for the USD.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. Prices are now forming an upward wave following the signal from the pattern. Since XAUUSD quotes are trading within an ascending channel, the next upside target may be 4,220 USD.
At the same time, today’s technical outlook also considers an alternative scenario with a correction towards 4,025 USD before further growth.
The potential for continued upward momentum remains intact, and XAUUSD may soon head towards the next psychological level of 4,500 USD.
Summary
Gold continues to regain lost ground, and the release of actual US data may become a catalyst for further gains. The XAUUSD technical analysis suggests further growth once the correction is complete.
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.