Gold (XAUUSD): volatility eases, but demand persists

Gold (XAUUSD) remains volatile around 4,010 USD. While risk sentiment has improved, investor interest in the precious metal persists. Find more details in our analysis for 31 October 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Reduced geopolitical risk is weighing on gold (XAUUSD)
• October ends on a positive note, with gold up roughly 50% year-to-date
• XAUUSD forecast for 31 October 2025: 4,045

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have retreated to around 4,010 USD per troy ounce, marking the second consecutive week of losses. The metal remains under pressure due to shifting expectations around the timing of future Federal Reserve rate cuts and news of the US-China trade truce.

The two countries reached a one-year agreement on rare earth metals and strategic resources. Donald Trump announced a 10% reduction in tariffs on fentanyl-related products, while Beijing pledged to curb mining output and resume imports of US soybeans. However, the long-term stability of the deal remains uncertain.

Further pressure came from comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who stated that another rate cut in December is not guaranteed. This pushed the US dollar to a three-month high, making gold less attractive to foreign investors.

Overall, gold remains in positive territory, with prices up for the month and gaining around 50% since the start of the year.

According to the World Gold Council, central bank purchases rose to 220 tonnes in Q3, up 28% from Q2. Kazakhstan led the increase, while Brazil made its first gold purchase in over four years.

The short-term gold (XAUUSD) forecast is neutral.

XAUUSD technical analysis

The gold (XAUUSD) H4 chart shows a continued correction following the strong rally in early October. After reaching a high of around 4,382 per ounce, prices dipped to the 3,885 support level, where the market temporarily stabilised.

The metal is trading near 4,000, attempting to recover. However, growth is limited by resistance at 4,045–4,050. Unless gold consolidates above this level, the outlook remains cautiously bearish. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, signalling a consolidation phase after a period of heavy selling.

Key support levels are at 3,885 and 3,820, while resistance stands at 4,045 and 4,160. An upward breakout would open the way towards 4,200–4,250, while consolidation below 3,885 could trigger a deeper decline. Overall, gold remains under moderate pressure but retains potential for a rebound if market sentiment improves.

Summary

Gold prices remain under pressure, but there is room for a correction. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for today, 31 October 2025, suggests a possible recovery towards 4,045 USD.

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