Gold (XAUUSD) shocks the market again as prices break records and target new highs

Ahead of Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s speech, XAUUSD prices may form a short-term correction towards 4,260 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 21 October 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Speech by Fed’s Christopher Waller
• Current trend: moderately correcting
• XAUUSD forecast for 21 October 2025: 4,400 and 4,260

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today shows that gold continues its uptrend, setting yet another record after testing the 4,381 USD mark. Currently, quotes are retreating slightly and trading near 4,330 USD per ounce.

The XAUUSD forecast for 21 October 2025 takes into account the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. Since the text of the speech has not been released, markets can only speculate on potential discussion points.

Possible key highlights:

• Monetary policy direction: Waller may reiterate the Fed’s intention to move towards gradual rate cuts, supporting market expectations of a 25-basis-point reduction at the next meeting. However, he may also stress that policy adjustments must remain cautious amid mixed signals from the labour market and inflation data
• Liquidity and balance sheet focus: analysts suggest that Waller might touch on the Fed’s balance sheet reduction program (QT) and the possibility of pausing it due to emerging tensions in the money market
• Data uncertainty: He may note that the ongoing US government shutdown has disrupted the publication of key macroeconomic data, complicating the Fed’s policy decisions

In this context, XAUUSD quotes may undergo a short-term correction before resuming their upward trajectory.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. The pair is currently developing a corrective move following the pattern’s signal. Since XAUUSD quotes remain within a strong ascending channel and considering both the recent sharp rally and current fundamentals, a corrective move is expected to continue, with the first target at 4,260 USD.

However, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis suggests an alternative scenario, where prices could climb towards 4,400 USD without a correction.

In the broader outlook, bullish momentum remains intact, and XAUUSD quotes could head towards the next psychological resistance level at 4,500 USD.

Summary

The ongoing US government shutdown continues to pressure the dollar, indirectly supporting gold prices. Technical analysis suggests a correction towards 4,260 USD before further upward movement.

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