Full throttle: gold (XAUUSD) rises amid US-China chaos
The trade confrontation between China and the US continues to fuel the upward momentum in XAUUSD, with quotes testing the 4,242 USD per ounce level. Find more details in our analysis for 16 October 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for October: previously at 23.2, projected at 8.6
- Current trend: moving upwards
- XAUUSD forecast for 16 October 2025: 4,350
Fundamental analysis
Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold continues its strong uptrend, once again setting a price record after testing the 4,242 USD level. At this stage, the asset is forming a pullback and trading near 4,200 USD per ounce.
The rally remains supported by expectations of upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Additional pressure on the US dollar comes from rising geopolitical and trade tensions between the US and China, including disputes over reciprocal tariffs and restrictions on rare earth metal exports.
The XAUUSD forecast for 16 October 2025 factors in a potential decline in the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index to 8.6 points from the previous 23.2. Weaker manufacturing activity could become another trigger for dollar weakness and further strengthen gold’s upward trajectory.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. Currently, gold continues its upward momentum in line with this signal. Given that XAUUSD quotes remain within an ascending channel and based on macroeconomic data, the outlook points to further growth, with a near-term target at 4,350 USD.
At the same time, XAUUSD technical analysis suggests an alternative scenario, where prices undergo a correction towards 4,170 USD before resuming the uptrend.
The bullish momentum remains intact, and in the near future, XAUUSD may advance towards the next psychological level of 4,500 USD.
Summary
Considering economic and geopolitical tensions, gold is likely to maintain its upward trajectory. Technical analysis for XAUUSD suggests 4,350 USD as the next upside target.
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.