Gold gains support from geopolitical risks

XAUUSD is rising amid increasing geopolitical tensions and expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, currently trading at 4,073 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 13 October 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Trade tensions between the US and China have intensified, boosting demand for safe-haven assets, including gold
• Financial markets are pricing in an almost 100% likelihood of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in October
• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on Tuesday, which could provide new signals on future monetary policy
• XAUUSD forecast for 13 October 2025: 4,120

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are rising for the second consecutive session. Buyers have confidently broken above the key resistance level at 4,050 USD, reinforcing the upward momentum. Gold is supported by renewed US-China trade tensions, which have increased demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

US President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Beijing’s decision to tighten export controls on rare earth metals. In his Friday statements, he also hinted at a possible significant tariff hike on Chinese imports and even the cancellation of the upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. One of the possible measures under consideration is a large-scale increase in tariffs on Chinese goods imported into the US.

Meanwhile, financial markets have almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in October and another similar move in December. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Tuesday, where he may outline the central bank’s position on future monetary policy.

XAUUSD technical analysis

XAUUSD prices continue to move within an upward channel. Buyers maintain control after breaking above the 4,050 USD resistance level, confirming the ongoing bullish momentum.

The XAUUSD price forecast suggests a correction towards 4,060 USD, followed by a renewed rise targeting 4,120 USD.

An additional signal supporting the bullish scenario comes from the Stochastic Oscillator, which remains above the 80 level, confirming strong bullish sentiment and the potential for further growth. A consolidation above 4,075 USD would confirm the upward momentum.

Summary

The technical and fundamental backdrop for XAUUSD indicates a steady upward momentum and retains a strong potential for continued growth towards 4,120 USD after a short-term correction.

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