Gold (XAUUSD) will quickly return to growth

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are hovering around 3,860 USD. The correction was needed, but it changes nothing: the rally will continue. Discover more in our analysis for 3 October 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) faced a correction but will return to growth at any opportunity
• The technical picture confirms that strong bullish momentum remains in place
• XAUUSD forecast for 3 October 2025: 3,897

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) traded around 3,860 USD per ounce on Friday, marking the seventh consecutive week of gains. Prices are supported by safe-haven demand and expectations of a dovish Fed policy.

Interest in gold increased amid the partial US government shutdown, which threatens thousands of federal jobs and may delay the release of key macroeconomic data, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Since the Department of Labor did not publish weekly jobless claims or September NFP, investors turned to alternative data. According to ADP, employment fell for the second consecutive month, the first time since Q2 2020. The JOLTS report showed a decline in voluntary resignations, while the Challenger survey recorded a slowdown in hiring. All of this strengthened expectations of two more Federal Reserve rate cuts before the end of the year, despite persistent inflationary pressures.

However, gold came under slight pressure after Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan urged caution regarding further easing.

The outlook for gold (XAUUSD) is positive.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the XAUUSD H4 chart, prices remain near all-time highs.

After a sharp rise from the 3,627 area, gold tested the 3,897 resistance level, where a local top formed. This was followed by a pullback to the 3,819 zone, which now acts as the nearest support.

Prices are fluctuating at the upper part of Bollinger Bands, confirming strong bullish momentum. Current candlesticks show attempts at consolidation between 3,819 and 3,897.

Short-term dynamics remain positive as long as prices hold above 3,819. A breakout above 3,897 will open the path to new record highs, while a breakout below 3,819 could lead to a correction towards 3,750.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) has corrected slightly but remains in a strong position. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for today, 3 October 2025, expects a recovery of the bullish impulse towards 3,897.

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