Gold (XAUUSD) at a new record: more highs ahead

Gold (XAUUSD) is at a new high of 3876 USD. The U.S. government shutdown supports demand for safe-haven assets. Full details in our analysis for 1 October 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) is actively rising as a safe-haven asset
• The U.S. shutdown adds strength and prospects for gold
• XAUUSD forecast for 1 October 2025: 3,900

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) rose to 3,876 USD per ounce on Wednesday and is very close to a record. The growth is supported by demand for safe-haven assets amid the U.S. government shutdown.

The Senate remains blocked by two competing funding bills. Starting today, federal agencies are halting operations. Traders are closely assessing the potential duration of the shutdown: if it proves lengthy, the release of key macro data, including Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, may be delayed. This would complicate the Fed’s preparations for its late-October meeting.

Fresh U.S. labor market data showed that in August the number of job openings rose slightly, but hiring slowed. This signals a gradual cooling of the market and gives the Fed room to cut rates.

Futures already price in an almost 100% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting and about a 76% probability of another cut in December.

The forecast for Gold (XAUUSD) is favorable.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart for XAUUSD, the price continues its upward move. After consolidating in the 3,730–3,770 area, quotes accelerated upward and broke higher, touching the 3,860–3,875 zone. The local maximum was recorded at 3,876, corresponding to an all-time high.

Short-term dynamics indicate a strong bullish impulse: candles are predominantly green, the price has settled above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, and is moving along the upper boundary of the channel. Support is located around 3,627, which confirms significant strength for the ongoing uptrend.

Thus, gold is steadily rising to record highs and is creating favorable conditions for further rallies if dovish signals come from the Fed and geopolitical tensions persist.

Summary

The price of Gold (XAUUSD) continues to rise, supported by demand and external tensions. The forecast for Gold (XAUUSD) for today, October 1, 2025, does not rule out further gains with a target of 3,900.

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