US inflation data could drive gold prices higher

XAUUSD prices remain stable amid expectations of further Fed policy easing and the upcoming release of key US inflation data. The rate currently stands at 3,739 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 25 September 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold, as a safe-haven asset, is supported by the Federal Reserve’s dovish monetary policy
• Investors are focused on the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index
• Markets are pricing in two more Fed rate cuts of 25 basis points each in October and December
• XAUUSD forecast for 25 September 2025: 3,815

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are declining for the second consecutive trading session, but buyers continue to hold the key support level at 3,715 USD. On Wednesday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated she fully supports the Fed’s recent decision to cut interest rates and expects further policy easing ahead. For gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, such conditions form a favourable foundation for continued upward movement, so the XAUUSD price forecast for today remains positive.

Currently, investors are focused on Friday’s release of the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Forecasts suggest the indicator will rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year. Overall, markets are pricing in two more Fed rate cuts of 25 basis points in October and December.

XAUUSD technical analysis

XAUUSD prices continue to move within a bearish correction and an ascending channel. Quotes are now hovering above the key support level at 3,715 USD and testing the Moving Average zone, indicating that buyers remain in control.

The XAUUSD analysis for today suggests a bullish scenario with growth towards 3,815 USD. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching oversold territory and generating a signal for continued upward movement, confirming the potential for renewed gold demand.

Consolidation above 3,760 USD will further confirm the bullish scenario, signalling that quotes are leaving the corrective downtrend channel.

Summary

Holding support at 3,715 USD and expectations of further Federal Reserve easing form the basis for maintaining positive momentum in XAUUSD. Technical analysis points to a high probability of a resumed upward move, with prices consolidating above 3,760 USD and rising to 3,815 USD.

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