Gold (XAUUSD) under pressure from Fed rhetoric

Gold (XAUUSD) is attempting to recover after recent declines, remaining in focus as investors assess the latest Fed decision. The exchange rate currently stands at 3,649 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 19 September 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• The Federal Reserve left room for further rate cuts but emphasised that high inflation may slow the pace of easing
• Market sentiment remains optimistic, but enthusiasm has faded
• Fed commentary disappointed investors hoping for a more dovish stance
• XAUUSD forecast for 19 September 2025: 3,610

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices are recovering after two consecutive sessions of losses, with buyers defending the 3,630 USD support level, indicating resilient demand. Pressure on the metal increased after the Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate for the first time since December, but left room for further action. The regulator also emphasised that persistent inflation could slow the pace of future easing.

Market sentiment remains optimistic, yet enthusiasm has clearly cooled. The Federal Reserve failed to meet market participants' expectations for a more dovish signal. While the Fed projected two rate cuts this year, supporting gold, its outlook for just one cut in 2026 was more hawkish than markets expected, tempering upward momentum.

Overall, the XAUUSD price forecast indicates upside potential, but sustained growth will likely require a softer Fed tone.

XAUUSD technical analysis

Despite recent recovery attempts, XAUUSD prices remain within a descending channel, with sellers pushing prices back below the 3,655 USD resistance level – a sign of continued pressure.

Today’s XAUUSD analysis suggests a bearish scenario, with quotes likely to decline towards 3,610 USD. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned lower from overbought territory, confirming the risk of corrective downside.

Consolidation below 3,630 USD would confirm a breakout below the corrective channel’s lower boundary and strengthen the bearish outlook for gold against the dollar.

Summary

Gold retains upside potential, but further strength will depend on more dovish Federal Reserve signals. Meanwhile, the XAUUSD forecast for 19 September 2025 points to a high downside risk, and the bearish scenario remains the priority, with a target at 3,610 USD.

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