Strong US macro data limits XAUUSD gains

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are edging lower but remain supported by safe-haven demand and expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. Prices currently stand at 3,410. Discover more in our analysis for 29 August 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Concerns over political pressure on the Federal Reserve may accelerate rate cuts, supporting gold
• The US economy grew by 3.3% year-on-year in Q2 2025
• US jobless claims fell by 5 thousand to 229 thousand
• XAUUSD forecast for 29 August 2025: 3,465

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are correcting lower today after three consecutive sessions of gains. Quotes reached the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern amid a weaker US dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets. Investors sought protection amid uncertainty around US monetary policy. Additional support for gold came from concerns that political pressure on the Fed could speed up the rate-cutting cycle.

Revised US Commerce Department data showed that the economy grew by 3.3% year-on-year in Q2 2025. Earlier estimates suggested 3% growth, while analysts had expected a revision only to 3.1%.

Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims fell by 5 thousand last week to 229 thousand, slightly better than forecasts. Economists had expected a decline to 230 thousand from the revised level of the prior week.

XAUUSD technical analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are correcting after a strong upward move, with buyers holding prices above the 3,395 support level, keeping the potential for another bullish wave intact.

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast suggests a move towards the next resistance level at 3,465. The Stochastic Oscillator remains in overbought territory, which may indicate the possibility of a short-term correction before growth resumes.

A breakout and consolidation above 3,425 would further confirm the bullish scenario, opening the way towards local highs.

Summary

Gold is correcting after recent gains but remains supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut despite strong US GDP and labour market data. Today’s XAUUSD analysis points to continued upside potential with a target at 3,465, provided prices consolidate above 3,425.

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