Gold (XAUUSD) at two-week high: everyone seeks protection

Gold (XAUUSD) prices strengthened to 3,372 USD. The market reacts to political turbulence in the US. Find more details in our analysis for 26 August 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices balance between an attempt to extend the uptrend and the risk of returning to consolidation
• If the Fed cuts rates, gold prices will rise confidently
• XAUUSD forecast for 26 August 2025: 3,390

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose above 3,372 USD per ounce on Tuesday, reaching almost a two-week high amid heightened political uncertainty. Growth was supported by news that US President Donald Trump dismissed Fed Governor Lisa Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud. This fuelled fresh concerns about the independence of the US central bank.

Another supportive factor for gold came from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who on Friday acknowledged the possibility of a September rate cut. He noted rising risks in the labour market but stressed that inflation remains a threat and no final decisions have yet been made.

Markets now estimate the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September at 83%. Focus remains on the release of July’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s key inflation gauge, which could set the tone for future policy.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is neutral.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, gold (XAUUSD) continues its upward move, reaching 3,389 USD per ounce. Since mid-August, quotes have fluctuated within the 3,310-3,350 range, where a support zone was formed. The current recovery started from this area.

An attempt to break above the 3,386-3,390 area failed, with prices correcting towards 3,372, indicating profit-taking near local resistance. The key support level remains near 3,350, with additional levels at 3,311 and 3,281.

The technical picture shows rising volatility: Bollinger Bands are widening, and recent candles indicate growing buyer interest. However, consolidation above the 3,386-3,390 zone is critical for further growth. Otherwise, gold risks returning to the 3,350-3,311 range.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose strongly on news flow but then paused. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for today, 26 August 2025, suggests renewed attempts to climb towards 3,390.

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