XAUUSD maintains bullish structure amid US dollar weakness

XAUUSD prices are correcting, but expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut continue to support the likelihood of further growth. The current quote is 3,365. Find more details in our analysis for 25 August 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• On Friday, gold rose by more than 1% following dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell
• Powell signalled the possibility of an imminent rate cut, noting rising labour market risks under restrictive monetary policy
• XAUUSD forecast for 25 August 2025: 3,395

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices are declining today after Friday’s more than 1% surge, driven by dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Powell acknowledged the possibility of a near-term rate cut. He pointed out that despite low unemployment, risks in the labour market are rising, while monetary policy remains restrictive, which may require adjustments. However, even Friday’s XAUUSD rally failed to push the asset beyond the Triangle pattern.

Markets reacted immediately: according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September rose to 87% from about 75% a week earlier. The key event this week will be the release of July’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which could provide fresh policy signals.

XAUUSD technical analysis

XAUUSD quotes are correcting after sharp gains but retain the potential to form a bullish Flag pattern, pointing to a high likelihood of continued growth.

The XAUUSD forecast suggests a move towards the next resistance level at 3,395 following the signal from the pattern. The Stochastic Oscillator supports the bullish scenario: its lines turned upwards from oversold territory, confirming the probability of recovery.

Additional confirmation would come from a breakout above the upper boundary of the Flag pattern, with prices consolidating above 3,370.

Summary

XAUUSD prices are correcting today after Friday’s rally amid Fed rate-cut expectations, while markets are closely monitoring July’s PCE data for monetary policy signals. Technical analysis shows a bullish impulse forming, and a Flag breakout could open the way for a move towards 3,395.

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