Gold (XAUUSD) on the edge: correction or start of a new rally
Ahead of key US economic data, XAUUSD prices are forming a correction and may test the 3,325 USD level. Find more details in our analysis for 21 August 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (US): previously at 15.9, projected at 6.8
- US initial jobless claims: previously at 224 thousand, projected at 226 thousand
- XAUUSD forecast for 21 August 2025: 3,375 and 3,325
Fundamental analysis
Today’s XAUUSD analysis shows that gold is trading near 3,337 USD per ounce, correcting after growth. Despite some retracements, gold does not give up its attempts to regain ground amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
The forecast for 21 August 2025 factors in the possibility that the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index may decline to 6.8 compared to the previous reading of 15.9. This would not be a positive signal for the US dollar, and if the actual figure turns out worse than forecast, it could influence XAUUSD prices.
US initial jobless claims reflect the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the prior week. The figure evaluates the labour market, with an increase signalling rising unemployment.
The previous reading was 224 thousand, while the forecast for today points to a slight rise to 226 thousand. Although the change is minor, data matching or exceeding expectations may still impact XAUUSD quotes.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Doji reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, they are forming a corrective wave in line with the pattern’s signal. Since XAUUSD quotes remain within an ascending channel, the uptrend will likely continue. For now, the 3,375 USD resistance level serves as the next upside target.
At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also considers an alternative scenario, where prices correct towards 3,325 USD before resuming growth.
Summary
Negative forecasts for US fundamentals should put pressure on the USD, but the currency is holding its ground. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests a correction towards support near 3,325 USD before moving higher.
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.