US-EU trade deal hit gold demand, but bulls are returning

XAUUSD prices are rising after a three-day decline, having held the key support level. The current quote stands at 3,338 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 28 July 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• The US and EU have signed a trade deal introducing 15% tariffs on most European goods
• The agreement also includes EU commitments to invest hundreds of billions of USD in the US industry
• Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting this week
• XAUUSD forecast for 28 July 2025: 3,390

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices are rising on Monday following three consecutive sessions of decline. Buyers have successfully defended the key support level at 3,315, triggering a recovery in prices.

The rebound is occurring despite reduced interest in safe-haven assets following the announcement of the US-EU trade deal. On Sunday, the parties concluded a broad agreement introducing 15% tariffs on most European goods, along with EU commitments to invest hundreds of billions of USD into US industrial projects.

Investors are now preparing for a busy week ahead, with the main focus on the Federal Reserve meeting, where no changes to interest rates are expected. However, the key driver will be the Fed’s tone; market participants are hoping to gain insight into a potential policy easing as early as September.

XAUUSD technical analysis

XAUUSD quotes remain within an ascending channel. Prices are consolidating near the 3,332 USD mark after a decline, which may indicate a slowdown in the downward momentum and a readiness for a reversal.

Today’s XAUUSD forecast suggests a rebound from the channel’s lower boundary and a move up towards the 3,390 USD level. The upward scenario is supported by the Stochastic Oscillator, with its signal lines exiting the oversold area and turning upwards, indicating that selling pressure is weakening.

The completion of the correction would be further confirmed by a breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel, with prices consolidating above 3,350 USD.

Summary

Despite the reduced interest in safe-haven assets, gold retains growth potential amid a rebound and expectations of dovish Federal Reserve rhetoric. Today’s XAUUSD analysis points to early signs of a bullish reversal with upside potential towards 3,390 USD.