After a bearish correction, gold (XAUUSD) gears up for a new surge

XAUUSD prices are recovering within a Wedge pattern, currently standing at 3,332 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 16 July 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% in June, up from 2.4% in May
• The World Gold Council reported net purchases of 20 tonnes of gold by central banks in May
• China continues to increase its gold reserves, raising total purchases since November to 34.2 tonnes
• XAUUSD forecast for 16 July 2025: 3,380

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are climbing after two days of decline as investors reassess the newly released US inflation data. The recent correction followed another rebound from the key resistance level of 3,365 USD, which buyers again failed to overcome.

The June CPI posted the largest increase in the past five months, rising by 2.7% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in May. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 2.9% annually.

Additional support for gold came from the World Gold Council: in May, central banks worldwide made net gold purchases totalling 20 tonnes. The main buyers included Kazakhstan, Turkey, Poland, and Singapore. China also continued to accumulate reserves, purchasing a total of 34.2 tonnes since November.

XAUUSD technical analysis

XAUUSD quotes remain within an ascending channel, with a Wedge pattern forming on the chart. Prices are consolidating near the 3,332 USD level, which may indicate a weakening bearish impulse.

Today's XAUUSD price forecast suggests a potential rebound from the channel’s lower boundary, with a recovery towards 3,380 USD. The Stochastic Oscillator analysis confirms the possibility of a reversal: signal lines are near the oversold zone and are beginning to turn upwards, signalling a loss of bearish momentum.

A breakout above the upper boundary of the Wedge pattern and a consolidation above 3,350 USD would further confirm the end of the correction.

Summary

Rising US inflation and continued gold purchases by central banks support the recovery of XAUUSD after the recent correction. The XAUUSD outlook for 16 July 2025 suggests growth towards 3,380 USD if prices break above the upper boundary of the Wedge pattern.