Gold (XAUUSD) on the verge of a surge? Today FOMC will reveal its cards

Ahead of the FOMC minutes publication, XAUUSD quotes may head towards the 3,340 USD mark. Details – in our analysis for 9 July 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• FOMC minutes publication
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 9 July 2025: 3,340

Fundamental analysis

The forecast for XAUUSD on 9 July 2025 takes into account that today the FOMC minutes will be published. The minutes will provide a detailed view of the discussions among FOMC members regarding the current economic situation, inflation risks, and possible future steps in monetary policy.

What to expect from the publication:

• Difference in tones: Powell's public statements have been restrained, but the minutes may turn out softer – possibly indicating a rate cut soon
• Committee disagreements: policymakers are split into two categories – some insist on a tight policy, others support easing – who will prevail, time will tell
• Tariffs impact: FOMC members may focus on how quickly and strongly the inflationary effect of new tariffs is projected – this is key to assessing timing and scale of easing

Market reactions after the minutes publication may follow immediately. If the tone is softer, USD may lose positions, and risk assets may strengthen slightly. Conversely, if a firm stance is confirmed, the effect will be the opposite, but likely moderate, as many factors have already been priced in.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart for XAUUSD, price formed a reversal ‘Hammer’ pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, it may form an upward wave in line with the pattern signal. Considering that XAUUSD quotes remain within the upward channel, further development of the upward trend can be expected. At this stage, the target resistance for growth may be 3,340 USD.

However, today's XAUUSD technical analysis also considers a second market development scenario, including a price correction to the level of 3,270 USD before rising.

The possibility of strengthening the upward trend remains, and XAUUSD price in the near term may head towards 3,500 USD.

Summary

Ahead of the FOMC minutes publication, XAUUSD price may form an upward wave, as confirmed by technical analysis. The target resistance level for growth is 3,340 USD.