US budget blowout and inflation surprise – gold (XAUUSD) poised to soar

The US federal budget deficit could trigger a rally in XAUUSD towards the 3,400 USD level. Find more details in our forecast for 11 June 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• US Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at 2.3%, projected at 2.5%
• US federal budget statement: previously at 258.0 billion, projected at -314.3 billion
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 11 June 2025: 3,400

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental XAUUSD analysis for today, 11 June 2025, takes into account that gold prices hold steady above 3,300 USD per troy ounce, maintaining their upward trajectory amid lingering uncertainty in US-China trade relations.

The XAUUSD forecast for 11 June 2025 suggests the CPI could rise to 2.5% from the previous 2.3%, but this projection may not materialise given the index has shown consistent declines in past reports. A weaker-than-expected CPI could put additional pressure on the US dollar.

Additionally, the US federal budget statement is projected to show a drop to -314.3 billion USD. The negative value indicates the budget deficit, which may further weaken the US dollar.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed an Engulfing reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. The pair is currently developing an upward wave based on this signal. As XAUUSD quotes remain within an ascending channel, further gains remain likely. The immediate upside target could be the 3,400 USD resistance level.

However, today’s technical analysis of XAUUSD also suggests an alternative scenario, where prices correct towards 3,315 USD before resuming the upward movement.

Gold still has the potential to continue its bullish trend, and XAUUSD quotes could hit a new record high and head towards 3,900 USD in the near term.

Summary

A potential uptick in the US CPI is not enough to rescue the dollar, with XAUUSD prices poised for a rally towards 3,400 USD.