Brent on the edge: the truce collapsed – the market is preparing for a new shock

The ceasefire agreement sent Brent quotes plummeting, but a new upward wave is now possible, with a test of the 112.45 USD mark and eventually 150.00 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 9 April 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent prices have plummeted to 92.00 USD per barrel and are attempting to recover
• The ceasefire between Iran and the US has practically collapsed
• The Strait of Hormuz remains closed
• Brent forecast for 9 April 2026: 101.75 or 112.45

Fundamental analysis

The Brent fundamental analysis for today, 9 April 2026, takes into account that the oil market is going through a dramatic two-act story, with prices first plunging on news of the ceasefire and then sharply reversing as it effectively collapsed. Brent crude is hovering around 94.00 USD per barrel in the morning, recovering losses after yesterday’s fall below 90.00 USD.

Act one: euphoria and collapse. It all started when US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran just an hour and a half before his ultimatum expired. The terms of the agreement were that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the US would lift part of the sanctions.

The market reacted immediately. Brent plummeted to 92.00 USD per barrel and then even tested a low of 88.76 USD, marking the sharpest one-day fall in recent years. Investors rushed to lock in profits, deciding that the worst was over.

Act two: the ceasefire falls apart within hours

The euphoria did not last long. Almost immediately after the ceasefire was announced, several events occurred that put the agreement at risk:

• Strikes on Lebanon: Israel carried out massive strikes on Lebanon. Hezbollah, backed by Iran, immediately responded with rocket attacks on northern Israel
• Iran accused the US of violations: Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that key points of the agreement had been violated even before negotiations began. Among the complaints were the continuation of hostilities in Lebanon and the US refusal to recognise Iran’s right to enrich uranium
• The strait remains closed: despite the promises, shipping sources report that Iranian forces are threatening to destroy any tanker attempting to pass without Tehran’s permission

The oil market is living in two parallel realities. Paper futures are pricing in hopes for peace and trading around 94.80 USD per barrel. While the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, any fall in prices will most likely be short-lived. The next 48 hours and negotiations between Iran and the US will determine whether Brent falls below 90.00 USD or soars towards 150.00 USD.

Technical outlook

After testing the lower Bollinger Band, Brent prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern on the H4 chart. At this stage, quotes are forming an upward wave following the signal, with a potential upside target at the 101.75 USD resistance level.

At the same time, the alternative Brent price forecast for 9 April 2026 should not be excluded, where Brent quotes may form a corrective wave and test the 90.55 support level before further growth.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways with an upward bias
• Key resistance levels: 101.75 and 112.45
• Key support levels: 90.55 and 85.00

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 101.75 level would confirm a continued uptrend amid geopolitical conflicts and lower oil production.

• Take Profit: 112.45 USD
• Stop Loss: 101.00 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Amid easing tensions in the Middle East, Brent quotes may break below the 90.55 support level and form a corrective wave.

• Take Profit: 85.00 USD
• Stop Loss: 100.15 USD

Risk factors

Risks to the upside are linked to a possible de-escalation of the conflict, such as a temporary ceasefire following Trump’s statements and progress in negotiations; this may reduce the risk premium. Restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may also increase production and supply in the energy market, which in turn will limit the growth of prices.

Summary

After the sharpest fall of the current year, Brent prices are recovering lost ground. Brent technical analysis suggests growth towards the 101.75 USD level.

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