Brent retreated from the peak: all eyes on the Middle East

Brent prices are falling amid geopolitical tensions, with the market watching US rhetoric on Iran. Find out more in our analysis for 10 March 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent prices fell below 92 USD as the local risk premium narrowed
• US rhetoric towards Iran and the status of the Strait of Hormuz remain key factors
• Brent forecast for 10 March 2026: 91.70

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude futures dropped below 92 USD per barrel on Tuesday after a sharp rally the day before, when prices surged to nearly 120. Pressure on the market emerged after US President Donald Trump said the conflict with Iran could end sooner than expected and that the military operation is progressing significantly faster than the original timeline.

Trump also said he plans to temporarily ease oil sanctions and deploy US Navy ships to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz to stabilise supplies and curb oil price gains.

Another factor weighing on prices was a statement from G7 finance ministers that they are ready to tap strategic petroleum reserves if needed. However, no specific decision to release reserves has been made yet.

Earlier on Monday, oil prices spiked after several major Middle East producers began cutting output amid shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

Due to severe restrictions on tanker traffic, several key producers, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq, started to reduce output as storage capacity is filling up quickly.

The Brent outlook is mixed.

Technical outlook

The Brent H4 chart shows a sharp increase in bullish momentum in early March. Prior to this, the market had been trading sideways around 70–74 USD per barrel, but then prices surged higher, breaking above the 82.14 level and, over several sessions, reaching an extreme near 115.40. The move was accompanied by a widening of Bollinger Bands and a sharp jump in volatility.

The peak was followed by an equally sharp correction. A series of strong bearish candlesticks quickly pushed prices below 100 and then into the 86–88 area, reflecting aggressive profit-taking after the rapid rally.

Brent quotes are now trading around 91.70 and are trying to stabilise after the volatile move. The nearest resistance level is in the 100–105 zone, while the key support level is around 82.14, which now acts as an important technical base for the market.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 100.00 and 105.00
• Key support levels: 82.14 and 74.00

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 95.00 would confirm a recovery of the upward momentum after the sharp correction. In this case, the market may return to a test of the psychological 100.00 level, with further potential to move into the 105.00 area. The move would be supported by ongoing geopolitical risks and supply disruptions from the Middle East region.

• Take Profit: 100.00 USD
• Stop Loss: 90.00 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 82.14 support level would increase selling pressure and indicate a further corrective move after the recent price spike. In this case, quotes could quickly shift towards 74.00.

• Take Profit: 74.00 USD
• Stop Loss: 86.50 USD

Risk factors

The scenario of further Brent upside could be challenged if the conflict around Iran de-escalates, oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is restored, and G7 countries potentially use strategic petroleum reserves to stabilise the market.

Summary

Brent has declined and pulled back from the local high. The Brent forecast for today, 10 March 2026, suggests stabilisation near 91.70.

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