Oversupply or shortage? Brent at the centre of market chaos

Brent is forming an upward wave and is trading near 63.20 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 20 November 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Signs of oversupply in the oil market continue to grow
• US statistics may increase volatility
• Brent forecast for 20 November 2025: 65.00

Fundamental analysis

The Brent fundamental analysis for today, 20 November 2025, takes into account that after declining, Brent is now forming an upward wave and trading near 63.20 USD per barrel.

The key triggers that may shift Brent prices in the current environment include:

• US crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by approximately 3.4 million barrels over the week, which provided support to the market
• There are increasing signs of oversupply, and ongoing negotiations for a peaceful resolution of the US/Ukraine–Russia conflict may lead to the lifting of sanctions and a rise in oil exports. Higher supply could trigger a drop in prices. In such a scenario, major oil producers may decide to cut output to maintain prices within a comfortable range
• Global oil production remains high while demand is not growing as confidently, adding pressure on prices
• After a long pause, US statistical data releases may reshape the oil market and trigger increased volatility

Brent technical analysis

On the H4 chart, Brent prices tested the lower Bollinger Band and formed a Hammer reversal pattern. Quotes are currently following this signal in the form of an upward wave.

The Brent price forecast for 20 November 2025 suggests a target level of 65.00 USD for the upward move. If resistance is broken, the upward wave may strengthen.

However, an alternative scenario is also possible in which Brent quotes continue their downtrend, with a target at 62.35 USD.

Summary

Ahead of US data releases, Brent is attempting to regain lost ground. The Brent technical analysis for today suggests a rise towards 65.00 USD.

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