Brent prices recover after collapse – can oil break above the 70.00 USD level?

A moderate increase in output agreed by OPEC+ could drive Brent quotes higher towards 67.50 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 9 September 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• OPEC+ agreed on a moderate output increase
• The end of the summer season could trigger a decline in Brent prices
• Brent forecast for 9 September 2025: 67.50

Fundamental analysis

The Brent fundamental analysis for today, 9 September 2025, takes into account that after a decline, oil prices are forming a recovery wave, trading around 66.20 USD per barrel.

OPEC+ agreed only to a moderate increase in production of 137,000 barrels per day, which was significantly below expectations and triggered a restrained rise in Brent quotes despite the output growth.

At the Singapore conference, a Maersk representative warned of a high risk of falling prices if demand does not rise while supply continues to grow. This is especially relevant in light of OPEC+’s July decision to increase supply. Against this backdrop, Brent prices had been gradually falling since July, with tentative attempts to return towards 70.00 USD per barrel in September.

TotalEnergies notes that the price spread between Brent and Dubai (EFS) remains negative, indicating a preference for heavy crude oil in the Asia-Pacific region. Meanwhile, WTI crude remains more competitive.

The Brent price forecast also takes into account that the seasonal demand slowdown after summer remains in force. It is not ruled out that OPEC+ may reduce production to support prices under the current circumstances.

Brent technical analysis

Having tested the lower Bollinger Band, Brent prices formed a Harami reversal pattern on the H4 chart. At this stage, the market is following the signal with a recovery wave.

The Brent price forecast for 9 September 2025 sees the upside target at 67.50 USD. A breakout above the resistance level would open the way for a stronger upward movement.

At the same time, an alternative scenario is also possible, in which Brent quotes may form a correction towards 65.00 USD before resuming growth.

Summary

Brent crude remains in a zone of uncertainty: restrained growth on the back of OPEC+’s limited decision is countered by risks of price decline due to weak demand and the threat of market oversupply. In the near term, the balance between output cuts and seasonal demand slowdown will be the key factor determining whether Brent moves towards 70.00 USD or reverts to decline.

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