OPEC+ production hike shock sends Brent prices down

After a prolonged decline, Brent quotes may correct towards the 68.50 USD area. Find more details in our analysis for 7 August 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent crude oil prices form a correction
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 218 thousand, projected at 221 thousand
• Brent forecast for 7 August 2025: 68.50

Fundamental analysis

The Brent fundamental analysis for today, 7 August 2025, takes into account that after reaching July highs, Brent prices continue to lose ground. Currently, the quotes are forming another corrective wave around 67.10 USD.

Key factors influencing Brent prices include:

• OPEC+ decisions on supply. The alliance announced a production increase of 547 thousand barrels per day starting in September, which could trigger a further drop in Brent prices
• Although major traders largely ignore US tariffs, the implementation of tariffs on importers puts pressure on prices
• Stable US demand and an unexpected 3 million barrel reduction in inventories provided some support to Brent prices

According to the forecast for 7 August, US initial jobless claims are projected to rise to 221 thousand. While this increase is not critical, rising unemployment negatively affects consumer purchasing power and could impact energy demand.

Brent technical analysis

Having tested the lower Bollinger Band, Brent prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern on the H4 chart. The market has partly reacted to this signal with a correction.

The Brent forecast for 7 August 2025 suggests an upside target at the 68.50 USD level. A breakout above the resistance level could reinforce the upward wave.

However, an alternative scenario also remains possible, where Brent prices may resume their decline towards the 66.50 USD mark.

Summary

US tariffs continue to weigh on Brent prices, yet the potential for a return to the uptrend remains.