Brent prices on the edge: OPEC+ floods the market

Brent quotes may regain ground and test the resistance level around the 70.70 USD mark. Discover more in our analysis for 22 July 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• OPEC+ continues to ramp up production
• Brent crude prices are undergoing a correction
• Brent forecast for 22 July 2025: 70.70

Fundamental analysis

The fundamental analysis of Brent for today, 22 July 2025, takes into account that after hitting new July highs, Brent formed a corrective wave and made another attempt to regain ground, but unsuccessfully. Currently, prices are in a new correction phase, trading near 69.90 USD.

The key factors influencing oil prices include:

• Rising tensions between the US and the EU, including threats of 30-100% tariffs. New US tariffs targeting countries like Brazil, the Philippines, Iraq, South Korea, and Japan increase global economic uncertainty and may weaken fuel demand
• OPEC+ is actively ramping up oil output. Saudi Arabia has been exporting record volumes in recent months. The de-escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict has eased fears over supply disruptions
• A weakening US dollar is partially supporting oil prices, but Brent’s upward momentum remains constrained by weak global demand
• The EU has approved its 18th sanctions package, including the potential for a lower oil price cap, but this is having only a moderate effect on supply

Brent technical analysis

On the H4 chart, Brent prices tested the lower Bollinger Band and formed a Hammer reversal pattern. Having partially fulfilled the signal, quotes are now undergoing a correction.

The Brent price forecast for 22 July 2025 suggests a growth target at 70.70 USD. A breakout above the resistance level would open the door to a stronger upward wave.

However, an alternative scenario remains possible where Brent quotes may extend their correction to 66.30 USD before initiating a new bullish wave.

Summary

Brent prices are testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel and may be gearing up for another bullish wave amid geopolitical tensions.