USDJPY on the edge: Tokyo tries to stop the panic

The Japanese government has wasted over 60 billion USD, and the yen continues to lose ground, with the rate currently at 157.90. Find more details in our analysis for 14 May 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The USDJPY pair continues to rise, recovering from interventions
• The Japanese government has spent approximately 60 billion USD on currency interventions since the end of April
• USDJPY forecast for 14 May 2026: 158.70

Fundamental analysis

The fundamental analysis for 14 May 2026 shows that the pair continues to rise, reversing the effect of the interventions and the consequences of high inflation in the US. On Thursday morning, quotes are testing the 158.00 level.

The USD received additional support after US inflation (CPI) data rose to 3.8%, exceeding expectations and the previous reading, which in turn prompted the market to speculate not about a rate cut, but rather about a possible new Fed rate hike before the end of the year.

Since the end of April, the Japanese government has spent over 60 billion USD on currency interventions to keep the yen at an acceptable level. These measures have prevented the pair from moving into a steep fall, temporarily keeping it below the 158.00 level.

Japan's leading hawks have become more active. Three members of the Bank of Japan board were already ready to vote for a rate hike in April. This evening, board member Masu Kazuyuki is due to speak. If he supports a rate hike, this will become an additional signal in favour of a stronger yen. If he remains cautious in his comments, the yen may continue to lose ground, and the market could see the pair testing the 160.00 level and possibly breaking above it to continue growth.

Today’s USDJPY forecast does not look encouraging for the yen, which has fallen into a trap. Tokyo is spending billions to strengthen the currency, but high US rates and high oil prices, with Japan being a major importer of energy resources, are pushing it down. While the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, market interventions will only have a temporary effect and provide traders with an opportunity to enter the market at a more favourable price.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and is trading around 157.90. Since the price remains within an ascending channel, it may continue the upward wave following the pattern signal, with the first upside target at 158.70.

At the same time, the USDJPY forecast also takes into account another market scenario, where the USDJPY rate may form a corrective wave and test the 157.30 support level before further growth.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 158.00 and 158.70
• Key support levels: 157.30 and 155.90

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 158.00 resistance level would create conditions for opening long positions.

• Take Profit: 158.70
• Stop Loss: 157.75

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 157.30 support level would indicate weakening buying pressure and create conditions for a deeper bearish correction.

• Take Profit: 155.90
• Stop Loss: 157.60

Risk factors

A risk to the USDJPY upside scenario will emerge if buyers fail to break through and consolidate above the 158.70 resistance level, which may trigger profit-taking and a renewed downward wave. An additional negative signal would be an attempt by the Japanese government to carry out another intervention.

Summary

The Japanese government’s attempts to stop the yen from falling have almost failed, and the USDJPY rate continues to rise. USDJPY technical analysis suggests growth towards 158.70.

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