USDJPY at the point of no return: the market is waiting for a blow from Japan

The yen remains under pressure from several factors: geopolitics and the threat of intervention. USDJPY quotes are testing the 159.20 mark. More details are in our analysis for 10 April 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The Japanese government is developing a strategic plan to stabilise domestic prices
• The probability of intervention remains at the same level
• USDJPY forecast for 10 April 2026: 158.50 or 160.35

Fundamental analysis

The fundamental analysis for 10 April 2026 takes into account that the USDJPY currency pair continues its nervous rollercoaster ride, balancing on the edge where the fragile truce may come to an end. Quotes in the Asian session consolidated in the 159.15–159.30 range, pricing in both uncertainty in the Middle East and the expectation of key US inflation data. At the moment, USDJPY quotes are hovering around 159.20.

The Japanese yen faces several pressure points today that are preventing it from strengthening despite hawkish signals.

Factors shaping the movement in USDJPY:

• Oil curse: Japan imports almost 100% of its oil. While tankers are not moving through the Strait of Hormuz in full volume, energy bills remain sky-high and the trade deficit keeps widening. This is fundamentally weakening the yen’s position
• Rescue from reserves: Prime Minister Takaichi announced that the government is considering a plan to release strategic oil reserves for 20 days starting in May in order to stabilise domestic prices. This is psychological support for a short period, but not a cure for the energy crisis
• BoJ rate: the market is still pricing in a 70% probability that the Bank of Japan will raise the rate to 1.0% at the 28 April meeting. But Citi Research warns that weak household spending data, with a 1.8% fall in February, may cause the BoJ to hesitate

As soon as the rate gets dangerously close to 160.00, Japanese officials step into the game.

• Decisive action: Finance Minister Katayama stated again in parliament this morning that the government is ready to take comprehensive and decisive measures against speculative moves in the currency and commodity markets
• Effect: her words immediately cooled the bulls’ enthusiasm: the pair corrected, but only slightly. The market is already used to such threats and only takes them seriously when USDJPY is actually storming the 160.00 level.

The USDJPY pair has once again frozen at a crossroads. The dollar is holding the initiative because of geopolitical uncertainty, but the yen is receiving support from intervention threats and expectations of a BoJ rate hike.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, near the lower Bollinger Band, USDJPY formed an Engulfing reversal pattern and is hovering around the 159.20 mark. Since the price remains within an upward channel, it may continue the upward wave as part of this pattern’s signal, with the 160.35 mark acting as the upside target in this case.

At the same time, the USDJPY forecast also considers another market scenario, where USDJPY may form a corrective wave and test support at 158.50 before rising.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 160.35 and 161.00
• Key support levels: 158.50 and 157.50

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the 158.50 level will indicate stronger pressure from sellers and the continuation of the correction after failed attempts to break the 160.00 mark and consolidate above it.

• Take Profit: 157.50
• Stop Loss: 158.80

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout of the 160.35 level will confirm the continuation of the upward trend and an attempt to renew local highs.

• Take Profit: 161.00
• Stop Loss: 159.90

Risk factors

The risks to the decline are linked to stronger geopolitical tension, which will support the dollar as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, expectations of tighter Bank of Japan policy and possible BoJ intervention may limit the pair’s growth and increase pressure on USDJPY.

Summary

The yen continues to remain under pressure from the geopolitical situation and the probability of intervention. USDJPY technical analysis points to growth in quotes towards the 160.35 mark.

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