Storm in the currency market: Trump’s statements have shaken USDJPY again

The Japanese government is determined to intervene if the USDJPY pair rises uncontrollably above 160.00. This morning, quotes are testing the 159.30 level. Find out more in our analysis for 2 April 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• Speech by US President Donald Trump on the Iran issue
• The Japanese authorities are on high alert
• The likelihood of an intervention is increasing every day
• USDJPY forecast for 2 April 2026: 158.50 or 160.30

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 2 April 2026 takes into account that the USDJPY pair staged a real rollercoaster, making a dramatic reversal amid contradictory signals from Washington. In morning trading, quotes surged above 159.00, pricing in the hawkish tone in President Trump’s speech, and are now trading around 159.30.

The main trigger for today’s volatility is the speech by US President Donald Trump on the Iran issue. What the market heard destroyed hopes for a quick truce that had been building over the past two days:

• Before Trump’s speech: the market was euphoric after Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statements that the war with Iran was ending. Investors were actively buying the yen, expecting de-escalation, and the dollar fell for the second consecutive session. The USDJPY pair pulled back from a high of 160.40 to a low of 158.25
• After Trump’s speech: the US President shifted the emphasis from peace to war. He stated that the US intends to intensify military action against Iran over the next two to three weeks rather than wind it down. At the same time, he gave no specific timeframe or conditions for a ceasefire

Unlike the dollar, the yen lacks a protective energy shield. Japan imports around 90% of its oil, and any escalation in the Middle East is a direct blow to the country’s trade balance.

For Japan, a rise in Brent oil prices above 115.00 USD per barrel may result in:

• Higher import costs and a wider trade deficit
• Inflationary pressure, which forces the Bank of Japan to act more hawkishly
• Weaker economic activity because of expensive imports

The market paradox is that the geopolitical crisis, which traditionally should push the yen upwards as a safe-haven asset, is now working against it because the market is focusing on Japan’s energy vulnerability.

The Japanese authorities are on high alert. In 2024, the 160.00 level triggered massive currency interventions by Japan’s Ministry of Finance, which spent more than 9 trillion yen to support the national currency.

Yesterday, on 1 April, Japanese government officials again warned against speculative moves, although they did not issue explicit intervention threats.

Against this backdrop, radical action from the Japanese authorities remains possible. If the pair breaks and consolidates above 160.00, they may enter the market to sell the dollar. This would trigger a sharp fall towards 157.00–158.00, but the effect will most likely be temporary, and after some time, the USDJPY pair may resume its upward momentum.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and is trading around the 159.40 mark. Since the price is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel, it may break above the resistance level and continue its upward trajectory following the pattern’s signal, with the upside target at 160.30.

At the same time, the USDJPY forecast also considers another market scenario, where the USDJPY rate may form a corrective wave and test the 158.50 support level before rising.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 160.00 and 160.30
• Key support levels: 158.50 and 157.75

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 160.00 would confirm the resumption of the upward wave after the correction. This would open the way for movement towards 160.30–161.00 if pressure on the yen persists.

• Take Profit: 161.00
• Stop Loss: 159.70

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 158.50 support level would strengthen selling pressure and indicate another corrective wave within the broader uptrend, with downside targets in the 157.75 area.

• Take Profit: 157.75
• Stop Loss: 158.90

Risk factors

The risks to growth are linked to the de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, as this supports the yen as a safe-haven asset. An additional factor may be stronger rhetoric from the Japanese authorities about possible intervention if the pair breaks and consolidates above 160.00.

Summary

As the market waits for intervention by the Japanese government, the yen is once again losing ground against the USD. USDJPY technical analysis suggests growth towards 160.30.

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