USDCAD surges: Canadian dollar under pressure ahead of the Bank of Canada’s decision

Amid expectations of interest rate decisions from the Fed and the BoC, the USDCAD pair may continue its rise towards 1.3880. Discover more in our analysis for 15 September 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• The market awaits interest rate decisions from the US and Canada
• The CAD remains under pressure
• USDCAD forecast for 15 September 2025: 1.3880

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD forecast for today is not optimistic for the CAD. Expectations of a rate cut in both Canada and the US are weighing on the Canadian dollar.

The main drivers for the USDCAD pair this week:

• There is a strong expectation that the BoC may cut its key interest rate as early as the upcoming meeting on 17 September 2025, due to weak employment data and slowing economic activity. These expectations put pressure on the Canadian dollar, weakening it against the US dollar
• According to the latest releases, some of the US producer price data came in below forecasts, increasing speculation about a possible Federal Reserve rate cut. The easing of inflationary pressure in the US makes the dollar a less hawkish asset, which in theory could give room for the CAD, but this effect is offset by Canada’s domestic problems
• Oil remains critical for Canada’s economy. Despite occasional gains in commodity prices, weak domestic data prevents the Canadian dollar from strengthening sustainably. A decline in export activity and modest growth in manufacturing sales are adding to pressure

The USDCAD forecast takes into account that the CAD is under pressure due to weak domestic Canadian data and potentially worsening export conditions. If oil or export-related sectors deliver weak signals, this could further weaken the CAD and trigger a rally in the USDCAD rate.

USDCAD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the USDCAD pair has formed a Harami reversal pattern near the middle Bollinger Band. At this stage, a corrective wave is developing in line with this signal. Since the pair remains within an ascending channel, further growth towards the nearest resistance level at 1.3880 can be expected. A breakout above this level would open the way for an extended uptrend.

That said, the forecast for 15 September 2025 also includes an alternative scenario, where the price may extend its correction towards 1.3815 before resuming growth.

Summary

The Canadian dollar remains under pressure due to expectations of a BoC rate cut, weak domestic data, and instability in the export sector. Even reduced inflationary pressure in the US does not give the CAD a solid advantage, as local factors outweigh it. Technical analysis of USDCAD points to continued growth towards 1.3880.

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