USDCAD consolidates in a Triangle, investors await Powell’s signals

The USDCAD rate corrects amid positive economic data from Canada, currently standing at 1.3802. Find out more in our analysis for 18 August 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• Investors focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
• Inflation in Canada slowed, but the Bank of Canada’s preferred gauge remained at 3.0%
• USDCAD forecast for 18 August 2025: 1.3880

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate is declining after rebounding from the 1.3820 resistance level. The US dollar remains under pressure as markets expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with the probability of such a move currently priced at 84%. Investor attention shifts to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which may provide new clues about the future policy path.

Economic data from Canada supported the Canadian dollar. In June, manufacturing sales rose by 0.3%, driven by the oil, coal, and food sectors, while wholesale trade grew by 0.7%, reaching 84.7 billion CAD. These figures highlight the resilience of domestic activity and reduce the risks of a slowdown.

Inflation in the country slowed but remains above target. The Bank of Canada’s preferred inflation gauge held steady at 3.0% in June, leaving little reason for accelerated rate cuts and tempering market expectations for more aggressive policy easing.

USDCAD technical analysis

The USDCAD pair is trading within an ascending channel, forming a Triangle pattern. The price is hovering above the EMA-65, reflecting buyers’ local advantage. Consolidation within a narrowing range signals a likely acceleration of movement once one of the boundaries breaks.

Today’s USDCAD forecast suggests a breakout above the Triangle’s upper boundary with growth towards 1.3880. The Stochastic Oscillator supports this recovery scenario, with its signal lines exiting the oversold zone, indicating decreased selling pressure.

Consolidation above the 1.3825 level would further confirm the bullish outlook.

Summary

The USDCAD rate remains under pressure, with solid Canadian economic data and persistent inflation supporting the local currency. USDCAD technical analysis points to a high probability of breaking above the Triangle’s upper boundary, with potential growth towards 1.3880.

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