EURUSD fluctuates under pressure: how the Middle East and economic risks will change the rate

Tensions in the Middle East continue to affect the EURUSD pair, with quotes testing the 1.1620 level and possibly moving higher. Find more details in our analysis for 10 March 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US existing home sales for February: previously at 3.91 million, projected 3.89 million
• Tensions in the Middle East are the main driver of the EURUSD movement
• EURUSD forecast for 10 March 2026: 1.1750

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that today, 10 March 2026, the pair is hovering around 1.1620, caught between safe-haven demand for the USD due to tensions in the Middle East and rising stagflation risks in the eurozone.

The situation in the Middle East continues to set the tone. The escalation of the conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the US, including strikes on energy infrastructure and threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, keeps oil prices at elevated levels. This benefits the US dollar as the primary safe-haven currency. However, the market appears to have largely priced in the current level of tension, so the dollar’s gains are more restrained.

US existing home sales in February, according to the forecast for 10 March 2026, may decline to 3.89 million from the previous 3.91 million. The expected decline is minor, but if the actual data comes out worse than forecast, it could have a negative impact on the USD.

With no major economic releases scheduled for today, geopolitics and oil prices are likely to remain the key drivers influencing EURUSD moves.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed an Engulfing reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and is currently developing an upward wave following the signal. The corrective target may be the 1.1750 level.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also considers an alternative scenario. Since quotes continue to decline and remain within a descending channel, the pair may move towards 1.1508 after the correction ends. A breakout below this level would open the way for a continued downtrend.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downtrend
• Key resistance levels: 1.1650 and 1.1750
• Key support levels: 1.1508 and 1.1400

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above 1.1650 would create conditions for opening short positions. The movement potential is about 100 pips with a risk of around 30 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio is above 1:3.

• Take Profit: 1.1750
• Stop Loss: 1.1620

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A consolidation below 1.1508 would indicate a continued downward movement in EURUSD within the descending channel.

• Take Profit: 1.1400
• Stop Loss: 1.1530

Risk factors

A risk to the EURUSD upside scenario would be a renewed increase in geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices, which could raise inflation concerns and strengthen support for the US dollar.

Summary

Amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the euro continues its attempts to strengthen against the USD. EURUSD technical analysis suggests a corrective rise towards 1.1750.

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