Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: the decline does not cancel the overall uptrend

Gold (XAUUSD) enters the week of 23–27 February in a consolidation phase after a pullback to 4,960 USD per ounce. Pressure on prices came from signals in the FOMC minutes and a reduction in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. At the same time, gold remains above key support levels, while central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainty continue to limit the scale of the correction.

The focus is on GDP and PCE data, as well as the USD dynamics. The market is assessing whether the current pause will turn into a recovery towards 5,100–5,300 or whether the correction will deepen towards 4,800. The baseline scenario is range trading with heightened sensitivity to Federal Reserve signals.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly performance: gold (XAUUSD) dipped to 4,960 USD per ounce in February after pulling back from highs near 5,540. Volatility persisted amid the FOMC minutes, which showed disagreements within the Fed and prompted the market to reduce expectations for rate cuts in 2026. An additional factor was low liquidity due to the Lunar New Year in China
• Support and resistance: on the daily chart, the upward structure remains. Prices stabilised in the 4,950–5,000 zone after a deep correction, with Bollinger Bands narrowing. MACD remains positive, but momentum is weakening. The key support levels are 4,816 and 4,696, while resistance levels are located at 5,118 and 5,326. Holding above 4,816 keeps the medium-term bullish scenario in place
• Fundamentals and outlook: the focus is on GDP and PCE, which will clarify the Fed’s policy trajectory. Geopolitical risks around Iran are present, but without escalation. The baseline scenario is consolidation in the 4,900–5,100 range, with the risk of a short-term correction while maintaining the overall uptrend

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

During another week of February, gold (XAUUSD) declined to 4,960 USD per ounce, remaining volatile after the pullback from the record levels of late January. The market analysed signals from the minutes of the January FOMC meeting.

The document showed disagreements within the Fed. Some participants support a pause in further rate cuts with a possible resumption of easing later this year if inflation improves. Others do not rule out even a rate hike and advocate for a more two-sided tone in communication. As a result, investors reduced expectations for the number of rate cuts in 2026.

Additional attention was focused on macroeconomic data, with investors expecting GDP and PCE price index releases, which should shed light on the monetary policy trajectory.

Short-term demand for precious metals fell amid the Lunar New Year celebrations in China. Liquidity declined, and participant activity decreased.

The geopolitical agenda also remained in focus, with risks around Iran intensifying again. According to media reports, in the event of a military scenario, a possible US operation could take the form of a prolonged campaign. However, the market is not yet pricing in a large-scale escalation, and this limits the rise in safe-haven assets.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, gold (XAUUSD) maintains an upward structure despite a sharp correction from the all-time highs near 5,540. After a momentum-driven rally, the market formed a deep pullback but held above the key 4,378 support level – a strong reversal earlier took place there.

Prices have now stabilised in the 4,950–5,000 zone and remain above the middle Bollinger Band. The bands are beginning to narrow, indicating declining volatility after the sharp move. The trend formally remains upward, but momentum has weakened.

MACD remains in positive territory, although the histogram is shrinking, signalling a slowing bullish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is moving downwards from the mid-range, suggesting a continued correction in the short term.

The key support levels stand at 4,816 and 4,696, with resistance located at 5,118 and then 5,326. As long as quotes hold above 4,816, the medium-term upside scenario remains.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental backdrop for gold remains mixed. Last week, XAUUSD declined to 4,960 USD per ounce after a pullback from highs near 5,540. The FOMC minutes showed disagreements within the Federal Reserve, prompting the market to lower expectations for rate cuts in 2026. Additional pressure came from GDP and PCE data expectations and reduced liquidity due to the Lunar New Year in China. Geopolitical risks around Iran remain, but without escalation.

From a technical perspective, the long-term uptrend remains intact. After a deep correction, prices stabilised in the 4,950–5,000 zone and held above the middle Bollinger Band. Volatility is declining, MACD remains positive, but momentum is weakening, and the Stochastic Oscillator allows for short-term pressure. The key support levels lie at 4,816 and 4,696, while resistances are located at 5,118 and 5,326.

• Buy scenario

Long positions are possible if prices hold above 4,816, aiming to return to 5,118 within the ongoing upward structure.

• Sell scenario

A breakout below the 4,816 level would increase the risks of a deepening correction towards 4,696.

Conclusion: the baseline scenario suggests consolidation in the 4,900–5,100 range with a moderate downward bias within the overall uptrend.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) dipped to 4,960 USD per ounce last week after a pullback from highs near 5,540, with signals from the FOMC minutes adding to pressure. Disagreements remain within the Fed: some members allow for a pause in rate cuts, while others do not rule out a more hawkish scenario. Against this backdrop, the market reduced expectations for policy easing. Additional influence came from expectations for GDP and PCE data, as well as reduced liquidity due to the Lunar New Year in China. Geopolitical risks around Iran remain, but without escalation.

Technically, the long-term trend remains upward despite the deep correction. Prices are stabilising in the 4,950–5,000 zone, and volatility is declining. MACD is in positive territory, but momentum is waning, and the Stochastic Oscillator allows for short-term pressure. The key support levels are 4,816 and 4,696, while the resistance levels are 5,118 and 5,326. The baseline scenario is consolidation in the 4,900–5,100 range while maintaining the medium-term upward structure.

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