Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: sideways movement continues, chances for growth remain

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around 3,340-3,360 USD per ounce, remaining within the recent weeks’ range. Demand for the metal is supported by expectations of a dovish Fed and a high probability of a rate cut in September. This sustains interest in safe-haven assets, despite an overall decline in volatility.

Restraining factors remain regulators' statements.

Gold continues to balance between rate-cut expectations and uncertainty in Fed policy. The metal’s next moves will depend on a mix of macroeconomic data and political signals from Washington. Let us clarify what movements to expect in the near term.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly dynamics

Gold (XAUUSD) is hovering around 3,357 USD per ounce, staying within the 3,350-3,439 range. Growth attempts remain limited by resistance at 3,380-3,416.

• Support and resistance

Key support: 3,350-3,345, with lower targets at 3,283 and 3,245. Resistance: 3,380-3,416, followed by 3,439 and the high of 3,501.

• Fundamentals

Gold is supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut, soft US inflation data, and rising political uncertainty.

• Outlook

The base case suggests consolidation within the 3,350-3,439 range with potential for an upside breakout towards 3,500.

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices remain in a narrow range, fluctuating around 3,367 USD per ounce. Over the past week, the precious metal declined by about 1.2%, reflecting weak demand for safe-haven assets.

Investors are assessing the outcomes of the Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated a cautious approach to monetary policy. The market still prices in around an 85% probability of a rate cut in September. However, the tone of recent comments signals continued concern over inflation and the labour market.

Geopolitically, statements from Russia on security issues added tension to the West–Russia dialogue.

Uncertainty in Fed policy and geopolitical factors keep gold in a sideways range, preventing prices from establishing a new trend.

XAUUSD technical analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around 3,344 USD per ounce, staying in a sideways range after a sharp rally in the spring.

The daily chart shows that since May, the market has been consolidating in the 3,245-3,420 range, failing to hold above 3,500, the yearly high.

Attempts to climb face resistance in the 3,420-3,500 area. Support remains near 3,245.

Indicators show declining momentum, with MACD hovering near the zero line, and the Stochastic oscillator moving in the mid-zone, reflecting a lack of a strong trend.

Overall, gold remains in a wait-and-see phase: range trading continues as the market searches for new catalysts to break the consolidation.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental background remains mixed. Gold finds support from soft US inflation data, a high likelihood of a Fed rate cut, and geopolitical risks. At the same time, rising equity indices and market optimism limit interest in safe-haven assets. Against this backdrop, the metal starts the week near 3,357 USD, in the middle of the range.

• Buy scenario

Long positions are preferable if support at 3,350-3,345 holds. A rebound from this level could open the path to 3,439 and then 3,500, especially amid weak US data.

• Sell scenario

Shorts become relevant if the 3,350 level breaks downwards, with targets at 3,283 and 3,245. This scenario will strengthen with rising bond yields and hawkish Fed signals.

Conclusion

Gold remains in a sideways range between 3,350 and 3,439. The base case implies moderate growth, aiming for a breakout above 3,439 and a move towards 3,500 if the news backdrop proves favourable.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) ended the week near 3,357 USD per ounce, holding in the middle of the recent months’ range. Prices found support from soft US inflation data, the high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, and increasing geopolitical tensions.

However, rising stock indices and capital market optimism limit the upside by reducing interest in safe-haven assets. Additional uncertainty comes from potential US trade measures and currency fluctuations, affecting the dollar and gold.

The key support level lies near 3,350, with resistance at 3,439.

A breakout above 3,439 could open the way to 3,500, while consolidation below 3,350 would increase the risks of a decline towards 3,283 and 3,245. For now, the range remains intact, and the market reacts to macroeconomic data and political headlines in the short term.

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