Weekly Gold (XAUUSD) forecast: upside potential needs solid footing

Gold (XAUUSD) came under pressure at the end of June as traders priced in a lower risk premium once Middle-East tensions eased. This weekly forecast explores how the Federal Reserve’s cautious tone and a weak US dollar could steer XAUUSD during the coming week. The key issue: can gold restart its rally?

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly action: Gold fell swiftly, sellers ran out of steam, and prices stabilised after touching 3,246.90.
• Key support: 3,300 USD (secondary zone – 3,120 USD).
• Key resistance: 3,400 USD (then the record region near 3,500 USD).
• Fundamental drivers: Dollar weakness remains central as markets price in fiscal risks and a potential Fed rate cut within months. Geopolitics stays on the radar.
• Overall bias: Moderately positive – provided price holds above 3,300 USD and can break 3,400 USD. The preferred scenario is bullish.
• Forecast Gold (XAUUSD) for July 7–11, 2025: target for growth — 3400 USD, breakout will open the path to 3450–3500 USD; support levels — 3300 USD and 3120 USD.

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

Gold recovered in recent days after last week’s sell-off; late June featured steady liquidation. Rising optimism over external trade trimmed safe-haven demand and weighed on the metal.

Trade headlines now dominate. US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam: Washington will drop part of the tariffs on Vietnamese goods in exchange for broader market access for US products. Investors welcomed the news; the effect on gold stayed limited but it did revive hopes for further bilateral agreements.

A softer US dollar capped bullion losses. The greenback slid on fiscal worries and bets on easier monetary policy.

ADP figures added support: in June private payrolls unexpectedly fell by 33,000 – the first drop in over two years. Traders now fear a weakening labour market and expect the Fed to cut rates soon.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart gold upholds the medium-term up-trend that started in late 2024. Price travels inside an ascending channel whose May peak reached 3,501.95 USD. Since then the market has corrected and now trades near 3,338 USD.

Key support lies around 3,120 USD – the March consolidation zone and the lower edge of a critical area. Deeper support rests at 3,057 USD. While price remains above these levels and inside the channel, the bullish structure stays intact.

Bollinger Bands have narrowed, signalling lower volatility and likely accumulation. A decisive break above 3,340 – 3,350 USD would flag renewed upside and could prompt another test of the record highs. A slide below 3,120 USD would intensify the correction and threaten a channel breakdown.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

Current conditions keep sentiment moderately positive: gold retains most recent gains, fundamentals back buyers, and the structure stays bullish while price holds above 3,300 USD.

• Buy scenario: Go long while price trades above 3,300 USD inside the rising channel. First target: a break of 3,400 USD. A daily close above 3,400 USD opens the way to 3,450 – 3,500 USD; sustained strength could lift price to 3,520 – 3,550 USD. An ideal entry may follow a pull-back towards 3,320 – 3,300 USD confirmed by reversal signals (candles, volume, or a bounce off the Bollinger mid-line).
• Sell scenario: Short if price breaks and closes below 3,300 USD – a sign the up-move has weakened. First target: 3,240 – 3,220 USD, then 3,120 USD. Such a move needs a firmer dollar, hawkish Fed comments, or upbeat data.

Aggressive shorts also fit after a false break of 3,400 USD that flips into a bearish daily candle (e.g., a pin-bar or “shooting star” on high volume).

Summary

Gold starts the new week above 3,330 USD per ounce despite a local pull-back. Optimism over the US-Vietnam trade deal trimmed safe-haven demand, yet dollar softness and weak US jobs data offset the drag.

Technically XAUUSD keeps an upward pattern inside its medium-term channel. Support at 3,120 – 3,300 USD remains pivotal. The 3,400 USD zone marks the week’s key hurdle: a break should reignite the rally towards 3,500 USD, whereas failure would heighten the risk of a deeper correction.

Fundamentals still favour buyers: the Fed stays patient, the dollar stays soft, and geopolitical tension lingers. Gold’s path of least resistance points higher, but the market needs a solid trigger to reach fresh peaks. US macro releases and central-bank rhetoric will shape short-term impulses.