Gold demand grows, XAUUSD quotes on the way to new highs

Amid expectations of US employment data, gold (XAUUSD) continues to rise, with prices testing the 5,190 USD level. Find more details in our analysis for 26 February 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US initial jobless claims: previously at 206 thousand, projected at 217 thousand
• US continuing jobless claims: previously at 1.869 million, projected at 1.860 million
• XAUUSD forecast for 26 February 2026: 5,200 and 5,255

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold is forming a correction after a rally, with quotes currently trading around 5,190 USD per ounce.

US initial jobless claims reflect the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. The indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.

The XAUUSD forecast for 26 February 2026 factors in a potential increase in claims to 217 thousand from the previous 206 thousand.

US continuing jobless claims reflect the number of people who have reapplied for unemployment benefits. Today’s XAUUSD analysis takes into account that continuing claims may decline to 1.860 million. The projected decrease could temporarily support the USD, although it is important to note that this is only a forecast.

The XAUUSD outlook also considers that in February 2026, jobless claims have been gradually increasing, meaning the actual figure for the current period may come in worse than expected.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Harami reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and maintain their upward trajectory. In the near term, as the pattern plays out, quotes may continue to rise. Since gold remains within an ascending channel, the first upside target stands at 5,335 USD.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical outlook also considers an alternative scenario involving a pullback towards 5,090 USD before further growth.

The potential for continued upward momentum remains, with XAUUSD prices possibly heading towards the next psychological level of 6,000 USD in the near term.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 5,335 and 5,560
• Key support levels: 5,090 and 4,860

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above 5,335 would confirm renewed upward momentum after consolidation below resistance and create conditions for a move towards 5,560. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:5.

• Buy Stop: 5,335 USD
• Take Profit: 5,560 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,300 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 5,090 would intensify corrective pressure and open the way towards 4,860. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:5.

• Sell Stop: 5,080 USD
• Take Profit: 4,860 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,120 USD

Risk factors

Risks to the bullish scenario include a decline in US unemployment and hawkish Fed commentary, which could strengthen the dollar. Trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks surrounding US-Iran negotiations continue to support gold.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to recover after a decline, with technical analysis suggesting a move towards the 5,335 USD level.

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