XAUUSD at a crossroads: US GDP and inflation could trigger a decline in gold prices

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to move sideways, trading around 5,000 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 20 February 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Q4 GDP: previously at 4.4%, projected at 2.8%
• US core PCE price index: previously at 0.2%, projected at 0.3%
• XAUUSD forecast for 20 February 2026: 5,100 or 4,920

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast indicates that gold is forming a sideways wave after recent growth. At this stage, XAUUSD quotes are trading around 5,000 USD per ounce.

The XAUUSD outlook for 20 February 2026 takes into account the release of US GDP data. GDP represents the total value of all final goods and services produced in a country, calculated based on end products excluding the cost of raw materials.

The forecast assumes that US GDP in Q4 may decline to 2.8%, compared to the previous 4.4%. An actual slowdown in GDP growth would put pressure on the USD, which has already been losing ground against other major currencies and precious metals for an extended period.

The core PCE price index is a key US inflation gauge that tracks price changes for goods and services excluding food and energy. It reflects underlying consumer spending trends and serves as the primary benchmark for monetary policy decisions. The core PCE represents the population’s real purchasing power and the level of economic stability, as it is less susceptible to short-term fluctuations.

The forecast for 20 February 2026 suggests that the index may rise to 0.3% from the previous 0.2%. The growth outlook remains uncertain, as this is only a forecast, and clarity will come after the actual release. A stronger-than-expected figure may support the US dollar and trigger a decline in XAUUSD prices.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD quotes have formed a Harami reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and are developing sideways movement within a correction phase. In the near term, as the pattern plays out, prices may resume an upward wave. Since XAUUSD remains within an ascending channel, the first upside target could be 5,100 USD.

At the same time, today’s technical analysis considers an alternative scenario involving a pullback towards 4,920 USD before renewed growth.

The potential for continued upward momentum remains intact, with XAUUSD prices possibly heading towards the next psychological level of 6,000 USD in the medium term.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: range (after impulsive decline)
• Key resistance levels: 5,100 and 5,560
• Key support levels: 4,860 and 4,760

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above 5,100 would confirm an exit from the current 4,900–5,100 consolidation range and create conditions for continued upward movement, with the first upside target at 5,260. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:3.

• Buy Stop: 5,100 USD
• Take Profit: 5,260 USD
• Stop Loss: 5,050 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 4,920 would increase pressure and open the way to 4,760, with the risk of further decline.

• Sell Stop: 4,900 USD
• Take Profit: 4,760 USD
• Stop Loss: 4,935 USD

Risk factors

The main risks to the bullish scenario remain strong US macroeconomic data and a hawkish Fed tone, which could strengthen the dollar. Additional pressure may come from reduced short-term demand from Asia and easing geopolitical tensions, which would decrease interest in safe-haven assets.

Summary

Gold continues to trade sideways ahead of key US macroeconomic releases. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests a potential move towards the 5,100 USD resistance level.

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