Shutdown behind, problems ahead: gold (XAUUSD) gets a chance for a breakout
Weakening US economic indicators may put pressure on the USD and trigger a rally in XAUUSD towards 4,225 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 25 November 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- US retail sales: previously at 0.6%, projected at 0.4%
- US CB Consumer Confidence Index: previously at 94.6, projected at 93.5
- Current trend: moving upwards
- XAUUSD forecast for 25 November 2025: 4,225
Fundamental analysis
Today’s XAUUSD price forecast remains positive for gold, although prices are forming a correction while recovering previous positions. The metal is currently trading at around 4,140 USD per ounce.
The XAUUSD forecast for 20 November 2025 takes into account the expected decline in US retail sales to 0.4%, down from the previous 0.6%. Although the decrease is not critical, it should be noted that this is the first release of the indicator following the end of the government shutdown.
The US CB Consumer Confidence Index reflects how consumers assess the current state of the economy. It is a leading indicator that signals the future level of consumer spending – a major driver of economic activity. High readings indicate optimism.
The forecast for 25 November 2025 suggests that consumer confidence may fall to 93.5 points, down from 94.6 previously, signalling negative sentiment among consumers.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. Currently, prices continue their upward momentum, following the pattern signal. Since XAUUSD quotes remain within an ascending channel, the next upside target may be 4,225 USD.
At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also considers an alternative scenario, suggesting a correction towards 4,040 USD before further growth resumes.
The broader uptrend remains intact, and in the near term, XAUUSD prices may head towards the next psychological level of 4,500 USD.
Summary
US economic indicators do not favour the US dollar. Technical analysis of XAUUSD suggests continued upward movement towards the 4,225 USD resistance level.
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.