Brent full of doubts: key events ahead

Brent crude has fallen to 70.73 USD. Geopolitics supports growth, while US inventory data weighs on prices. Discover more in our analysis for 26 February 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent prices are under pressure ahead of the next round of US-Iran talks
• US inventory data showed the strongest weekly increase in two years
• Brent forecast for 26 February 2026: 70.20 or 72.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude has declined for the second consecutive session on Thursday, slipping to 70.73 USD. Investors are preparing for the third round of nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran, scheduled for today.

The market is closely watching the meeting in Geneva. The US delegation is led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, while Iran is represented by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The talks are taking place amid heightened tensions and increased military presence in the Middle East. President Donald Trump previously stated that the US could carry out limited strikes if no agreement is reached.

However, price growth is being restrained by a sharp rise in US crude inventories. According to the EIA, stockpiles increased by 16 million barrels last week, marking the largest weekly gain since February 2023.

Concerns over oversupply are intensifying. Saudi Arabia is approaching its highest export volumes in nearly three years, while Iran has accelerated tanker loadings.

The outlook for Brent is mixed.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent prices rebounded from the 66.35 area, formed a strong upward impulse, broke above 70.20, and reached highs near 72.00. The rally was accompanied by widening Bollinger Bands, signalling increased volatility.

Currently, prices are consolidating within the 70.20–72.00 range and trading around 70.7. Volatility is decreasing, and Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, indicating a sideways phase after the sharp rise.

The nearest resistance level is located at 72.00, with support at 70.20. A breakout below this level would increase the risk of a decline towards the 68–69 area. As long as prices remain above 70.20, the structure is moderately positive, although momentum has noticeably weakened.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: range
• Key resistance levels: 72.00 and 74.55
• Key support levels: 70.20 and 68.50

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above 72.00 would confirm a breakout out of the 70.20–72.00 range and renewed upward momentum after the rebound from 66.35. The target is 74.55. The potential profit is around 255 pips with a risk of approximately 115 pips. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:2.

• Take Profit: 74.55 USD
• Stop Loss: 70.85 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below 70.20 would add to corrective pressure and open the way towards 68.50.

• Take Profit: 68.50 USD
• Stop Loss: 71.20 USD

Risk factors

The bullish scenario will be questioned if prices consolidate below 70.20, signalling a weakening bullish structure on the H4 chart. Additional negative factors may include further increases in US oil inventories or easing geopolitical tensions surrounding US-Iran talks.

Summary

Brent crude is declining as the market awaits news and technical signals. The Brent forecast for today, 26 February 2026, suggests continued sideways movement within the 70.20–72.00 range.

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