Brent oil prices at 63.30 USD: what will trigger the next corrective move?

Brent quotes continue a corrective wave and are trading around 63.30 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 20 January 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent quotes are forming a corrective wave after a rapid rally
• The US plans to reintroduce trade tariffs, with the USD losing ground against this background
• Brent forecast for 20 January 2026: 62.15

Fundamental analysis

The fundamental analysis of Brent for today, 20 January 2026, takes into account that Brent prices are forming a corrective wave and trading near the 63.30 USD per barrel level. Triggers that may influence changes in Brent prices under current conditions include:

• Escalation in oil-producing regions, for example, in the Middle East, or the introduction of new sanctions against major oil producers such as Russia or Iran, may sharply alter global oil supply and affect prices
• Expectations regarding OPEC+ production actions in 2026. The market is pricing in the likelihood of an extension or adjustment of production limits, and any information leaks or comments on this matter can immediately impact prices
• For major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, maintaining high oil prices remains important to finance their budgets. This may prompt them to maintain or tighten production curbs in order to boost Brent prices

Today, Brent oil prices remain under the influence of geopolitical risks, OPEC+ actions, and the global economic environment. Possible changes in supply and demand driven by political decisions or economic reports may significantly affect oil quotes, which are currently forming another corrective wave.

Technical outlook

After testing the upper Bollinger Band, Brent prices formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern on the H4 chart. At this stage, the market is following the signal in the form of a downward wave.

The Brent price forecast for 20 January 2026 identifies the 62.15 USD level as the downside target. A breakout below the support level will open the door for stronger downward momentum.

At the same time, an alternative scenario should not be excluded, in which Brent quotes may resume the uptrend, with the 64.00 USD level acting as the upside target.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: Bullish
• Key resistance levels: 65.25 and 66.45
• Key support levels: 62.85 and 59.75

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Limit)

A rebound from the key support level at 63.05 USD will indicate the completion of the downward correction and the formation of a new bullish impulse. In this case, the potential for renewed growth within the upward structure remains.

The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:3. Potential profit upon reaching the take-profit level amounts to 440 pips, while possible losses are limited to 125 pips.

• Take Profit: 67.45 USD
• Stop Loss: 61.80 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Opening short positions is considered if prices confidently break below the 61.80 USD support level. The implementation of this scenario will indicate a continued downward move, with the target of testing the next key support zone.

• Take Profit: 59.75 USD
• Stop Loss: 63.15 USD

Risk factors

Further easing of geopolitical tensions around Iran, combined with continued soft rhetoric from the US amid a breakout below the key 62.85 USD support level, may limit demand recovery and hinder the growth of Brent prices.

Summary

Geopolitical risks continue to influence Brent quotes. Brent technical analysis for today suggests a correction towards the 62.15 USD support level.

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