Brent: prices fall to support at 60.00 USD

Brent prices have dropped toward the 60.00 USD area amid peace talks on Ukraine and concerns over excess oil supply in global markets. Details — in our analysis for 16 December 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: today the market awaits US employment data for November
• Current trend: a downward move is observed
• Brent forecast for 16 December 2025: 58.50 or 64.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices are declining, falling toward the psychologically important 60.00 USD level, supported by renewed negotiations over a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

On Monday, US officials signaled that an agreement between Russia and Ukraine is closer than ever, as Washington has agreed to provide security guarantees to Kyiv, although territorial issues remain unresolved.

A peace agreement could pave the way for the lifting of US sanctions on Russian oil, potentially injecting additional supply into the market.

It is forecast that the oil market will remain oversupplied this year and next, as OPEC+ producers have restored previously suspended output, while non-OPEC producers — particularly in North and South America — are also increasing production.

Brent technical analysis

On the H4 chart, Brent shows a decline within a bearish impulse. The Alligator indicator is pointing downward, suggesting that the downward movement may continue. The key support level capable of halting the decline is currently located at 60.00 USD.

Within the short-term Brent price forecast, it can be assumed that if bulls manage to hold prices above 60.00 USD, a rebound toward the 64.00 USD level may follow. If bears manage to confidently push prices below 60.00 USD, further decline toward the 58.50 USD support becomes possible.

Summary

Brent crude oil continues to decline, falling toward the 60.00 USD support level. Today, market participants’ attention will be focused on US employment statistics.

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